Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Betting Analysis: Odds and Picks

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Betting Analysis: Odds and Picks

Seems like a week doesn't go by without a slew of Breeders' Cup Challenge Series "Win and You're In'' races somewhere around the globe.

Not this week, since the 43rd Breeders' Cup is just about three weeks away at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky.

Yes, there's one more "Win, and You're In'' race, and that's the Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot on Oct. 17. The winner earns an all-fees paid berth to the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) on Oct. 31, but a two-week turnaround, including a trip across the pond and a quarantine, is not happening.

On Saturday, Keeneland continues to warm up for its fourth Breeders' Cup as the Fall meet carries on, featuring the $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (G1). This is not a "Win and You're In'' race, and this, too, is way too close for any of the top finishers to be considered for a Breeders' Cup race.

Nonetheless, the betting never stops, and handicappers have themselves an international and competitive field of 11 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

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Is Luster Worthy of 5-2 Favoritism?

Heading the field is Luster, the 5-2 morning-line favorite coming off her victory over the boys in the prestigious $1 million King's Plate Stakes on Aug. 15 at Woodbine.

Canada's top 3-year-old – male or female -- has won five of six for trainer Josie Carroll and will be ridden again by Hall of Famer John Velazquez. Luster took the King's Plate by 7 ¼ lengths as the 1-4 favorite over an all-weather surface but is 2-for-2 on turf.

The Challenge Cup began in 1984 to honor Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II, who attended the races and presented a trophy during a private visit to Central Kentucky.

Among the notable winners are She Feels Pretty (2024), Mawj (2023), Gina Romantica (2022), Rushing Fall (2018), Dayatthespa (2012), Film Maker (2003), Riskaverse (2002), and Ryafan (1997).

Post time for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is 5:16 p.m. ET.

Other Contenders

Faithful Departed (7-2) ran a solid second in Saratoga Oaks (G2) and Belmont Oaks (G1). Beaten a head in the Saratoga Oaks last out, the filly trained by Grant Foster looks ready to hit the winner's circle this time. Jose Ortiz has the call.

Tam Tam (4-1) comes into the race off a win in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) on Aug. 22 for trainer Phil Bauer. The filly has won four of nine (with two seconds and two thirds) and will be ridden by Junior Alvarado. An inside post (gate 3) should help the speedy daughter of Medaglia d'Oro.

Can Braida Pull Off the Upset?

Braida (8-1) ships in from France for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard and has to be considered a win contender. She's won a few minor stakes but was sixth in a Group 3. Last week, Graffard and jockey Mickael Barzalona teamed up and won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for a second year in a row with Daryz.

Storm’s Wake at tempting 10-1 odds won at Keeneland in the spring, taking the Appalachian Stakes (G2) and winning the Old Dominion Oaks last time out. Tyler Gaffalione rides for trainer Brian Lynch.

Deep Learning (12-1) is trained by Chad Brown, who has saddled the winner of this race five times. Could be a live longshot.

The rest of the field includes Belmont Oaks winner Kensington Lane (8-1): Turner’s Charm (20-1), Lookin At Diamond (20-1), Soloist (20-1) and Haute Diva (30-1).

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The Picks: 1 Braida, 2 Luster, 3 Deep Learning

The Field for the $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

# Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Haute Diva Keith Asmussen Patrick Biancone 30/1
2 Luster John Velazquez Josie Carroll 5/2
3 Tam Tam Junior Alvarado Phil Bauer 4/1
4 Faithful Departed Jose Ortiz Grant Forster 7/2
5 Turner's Charm Ben Curtis Brendan Walsh 20/1
6 Braida (FR) Vincent Cheminaud Francis-Henri Graffard 8/1
7 Storm's Wake Tyler Gaffalione Brian Lynch 10/1
8 Lookin At Diamond Julien Leparoux Leonard Powell 20/1
9 Kensington Lane (IRE) Joel Rosario Phil D'Amato 8/1
10 Deep Learning Flavien Prat Chad Brown 12/1
11 Soloist Irad Ortiz Jr. Kenny McPeek 20/1

Last Updated on 10/07/2026

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