Kentucky Derby Odds, Best Pick, Past Performances, Expert Handicapping
The excitement of the Kentucky Derby is never restricted to just the two minutes or so in which the race has run. In the weeks leading up to the annual event, contenders jump onto and off the probables lists daily and the hype builds steadily up until and through the time the gates swing open. But nothing is as exciting, likely, than the last few seconds of the race as the winner cruises down the lane to the win by daylight, or especially when he (or she) just gets up in time. The Derby outcome has been decided by less than a length on 42 occasions, but has been won by four lengths or more 23 times.
Kentucky Derby Past Performances, Expert Picks
Largest Winning Margins:
Old Rosebud: 1914, 8 lengths
Johnstown: 1939, 8 lengths
Whirlaway: 1941, 8 lengths
Assault: 1946, 8 lengths
Mine That Bird: 2009, 6 ¾ lengths
Barbaro: 2006, 6 ½ lengths
Chant: 1894, 6 lengths
Hoop Jr.: 1945, 6 lengths
Spend a Buck: 1985, 5 ¼ lengths
Halma: 1895, 5 lengths
Sir Barton: 191,9 5 lengths
Bubbling Over: 1926, 5 lengths
Burgoo King: 1932, 5 lengths
Dust Commander: 1970, 5 lengths
Monarchos: 2001, 4 ¾ lengths
Big Brown: 2008, 4 ¾ lengths
Pensive: 1944, 4 ½ lengths
Hindoo: 1881, 4 lengths
Lookout: 1893, 4 lengths
Wintergreen: 1909, 4 lengths
Twenty Grand: 1931, 4 lengths
Count Turf: 1951, 4 lengths
War Emblem: 2002, 4 lengths
Smallest Winning Margin
Spokane: 1889, nose
Azra: 1892, nose
Ben Brush: 1896, nose
Plaudit: 1898, nose
Alan-a-Dale: 1902, nose
Brokers Tip: 1933, nose
Iron Liege: 1957 nose
Tomy Lee: 1959, nose
Grindstone: 1996, nose
Paul Jones: 1920, head
Behave Yourself: 1921, head
Whiskery: 1927, head
Bold Venture: 1936, head
Jet Pilot: 1947, head
Dark Star: 1953, head
Silver Charm: 1997, head
Joe Cotton: 1885, neck
Typhoon II: 1897, neck
Worth: 1912, neck
George Smith: 1916, neck
Northern Dancer: 1964, neck
Lucky Debonair: 1965, neck
Majestic Prince: 1969, neck
Winning Colors: 1988, neck
Charismatic: 1999, neck
Apollo: 1882, ½ length
Ben Ali: 1886, ½ length
Kingman: 1891, ½ length
Elwood: 1904, ½ length
Donau: 1910, ½ length
Donerail: 1913, ½ length
Black Gold: 1924, ½ length
Tim Tam: 1958, ½ length
Kauai King: 1966, ½ length
Real Quiet: 1998, ½ length
Giacomo: 2005, ½ length
Judge Himes: 1903, ¾ length
Meridian: 1911, ¾ length
Needles: 1956 ¾ length
Carry Back: 1961, ¾ length
Pleasant Colony: 1981, ¾ length
Alysheba: 1987, ¾ length
Kentucky Derby Expert Handicapping, Best Picks
Only one Derby winner since 1908 broke his maiden in the Derby meaning that the majority of all Derby runners have at least graduated to the winners’ class and made it to stakes company. Last year Authentic became the fourth Derby winner to have broken his maiden at Del Mar. Belmont leads all tracks with 16.
That said, some tracks still send out more Derby winners than others, so following is a list of track success where Derby winners broke their maidens, in alphabetical order.
Aqueduct: 9
Arlington Park: 5
Belmont Park: 16
Calder: 2
Churchill Downs: 4
Del Mar: 4
Delaware Park: 3
Fort Erie: 1
Gulfstream Park: 3
Hialeah: 7
Hollywood Park: 5
Keeneland: 2
Pimlico: 1
Santa Anita: 9
Saratoga: 10
Tampa Bay Downs 1
Turfway Park: 2
Woodbine: 3
Last winner to have broken their maiden at each track:
Aqueduct: 2013 winner Orb
Arlington Park: 2007 winner Street Sense
Belmont Park: 2010 winner Super Saver
Calder: 1992 winner Lil E. Tee
Churchill Downs: 1933 winner Brokers Tip (also broke maiden in the Derby)
Del Mar: 2020 winner Authentic
Delaware Park: 2006 winner Barbaro
Fort Erie: 1964 winner Northern Dancer
Gulfstream Park: 2019 winner Country House
Hialeah: 1975 winner Foolish Pleasure
Hollywood Park: 2014 winner California Chrome
Keeneland: 2011 winner Animal Kingdom
Meadowlands: 1981 winner Pleasant Colony
Parx Racing: 2004 winner Smarty Jones
Pimlico: 1979 winner Spectacular Bid
Santa Anita: 2018 winner Justify
Saratoga: 2008 winner Big Brown
Saratoga (dirt): 1988 winner Winning Colors
Saratoga (male on dirt): 1962 winner Decidedly
Tampa Bay Downs” 2017 winner Always Dreaming
Turfway Park: 1987 winner Alysheba
Woodbine: 2009 winner Mine That Bird
On Synthetic: 2011 winner Animal Kingdom
On Turf: 2008 winner Big Brown
Foreign: 1976 winner Bold Forbes (El Commandante, Puerto Rico)
How many starts did it take for Derby winners to break their maiden?
Derby winners who broke maiden in first start: 45
Derby winners who broke maiden in second start: 26
Derby winners who broke maiden in first or second start: 69
Derby winners who broke maiden in third start: 16
Derby winners who broke maiden in 4+ starts: 17
Derby winners who broke maiden on turf: 3
Derby winners who broke maiden on synthetic: 4
Derby winners who broke maiden on turf (since 1914): Sea Hero (1993), Barbaro (2006) & Big Brown (2008)
Derby winners who broke maiden on a synthetic surface (since 1914): Mine That Bird (2009), Animal Kingdom (2011), I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) & American Pharoah (2015)
Derby winners who broke maiden in a maiden claiming race (since 1914): Charistmatic (1999) & Mine That Bird (2009)
Maiden Winners (since 1929 or last 90)
Derby winners who broke maiden in April: 8
Derby winners who broke maiden in May: 6
Derby winners who broke maiden in June: 11
Derby winners who broke maiden in July: 10
Derby winners who broke maiden in August: 11
Derby winners who broke maiden in September: 11
Derby winners who broke maiden in October: 9 (including 8 of last 24)
Derby winners who broke maiden in November: 8
Derby winners who broke maiden in December: 0
Derby winners who broke maiden in January.: 8
Derby winners who broke maiden in February: 1 (latest February 18, except 1933)
Derby winners who broke maiden in March: 0
Derby winners who broke maiden in April: 0
Derby winners who broke maiden prior to December: 75 (82.4%)
About two-thirds of the Derby winners broke their maiden in their first or second start, including 17 of the last 21 years.
Twelve maidens have run in the Kentucky Derby since 1937 – Bodexpress, 2019, 13th; Sonneteer, 2017, 16th; Trojan Nation, 2016, 16th; Nationalore, 1998, 9th; Pendleton Ridge, 1990, 13th; Great Redeemer, 1979, 10th; Fourulla, 1971, 19th; The Chosen One ,1959, 14th; Flamingo, 1958; 13th; On The Mark, 1950, 8th; Senecas Coin, 1949, 14th; and Bert G., 1945, 14th
Miriam Lee has always been a horse racing fan thanks to trips to the tracks in her home state of Maryland with her father as kid. She owns an OTTB and is an advocate for promoting the sport among her peers. Miriam studies communication arts at Hood College and will receive her master’s degree in 2021, which she plans to use for a career in screenwriting. Her all-time favorite racehorse is Man O War.
