Kentucky Jockey Club and Golden Rod Betting Analysis

Kentucky Jockey Club & Golden Rod Stakes Odds, Picks, & Betting Analysis! Get the breakdown on top contenders.

The victory was not a surprise, because Further Ado was the 2-1 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland. But the margin was crazy: 20 lengths. Nobody saw that coming, not after he lost his first two starts by 3½ and 6¼ lengths.

Those races at Saratoga were at 6 and 7 furlongs, which made trainer Brad Cox think the son of hot sire Gun Runner wasn’t a sprinter. Or maybe Further Ado just didn’t like the track at the Spa.

“He put it all together that day at Keeneland ... the only thing that really changed was going two turns,” Cox said.

Further Ado will be going two turns Saturday at Churchill Downs in the $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) for 2-year-olds. The distance will be the same, but the competition will be a lot tougher. Was that runaway in Lexington a fluke? Will Further Ado bounce off his breakthrough performance?

Post time is 5:25 p.m. ET for the 10th race, which will offer the top five finishers Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 sliding scale. The first five fillies in the co-featured Golden Rod Stakes (G2) will get points for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

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Betting alternatives to the favorite: Further Ado

Cox is trying to see whether his loaded barn may have a Kentucky Derby contender. “We want to get another good race out of him to finish his year off Saturday,” he said.

Further Ado (post 6, 7-5) is training well and gets perennial champion rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. The Irad-Cox combination always gets bet heavily, so Further Ado will be no bargain. He might even be odds-on. Let’s see whether we can find a colt to beat him.

Cherokee Nation (post 2, 3-1) offers a logical alternative. Although he’s a maiden, he lost his last race by only a nose at a mile and is trained by the masterful Bob Baffert. He also has tactical speed and picks up rider Flavien Prat, last year’s Eclipse Award winner.

Other possibilities are the speedy Dr. Kapur (post 3, 8-1) and Soldier N Diplomat, who cruised by nine lengths last out in a 1-turn mile at Churchill. Soldier N Diplomat also beat Further Ado by 3½ lengths in the debut for both. The price on Spice Runner (post 1, 12-1) will be tempting. Ignore his 12-length loss to presumptive champion Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), in which Spice Runner stumbled and was steadied at the start.

Post time is 5:25 p.m. ET.

The Picks: 1 Cherokee Nation, 2 Further Ado, 3 Soldier N Diplomat

The field for the $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Spice Runner (Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen), 12-1,
  2. Cherokee Nation (Flavien Prat, Bob Baffert), 3-1
  3. Dr. Kapur (Jose Ortiz, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 8-1
  4. Soldier N Diplomat (Tyler Gaffalione, Steve Asmussen), 4-1
  5. Very Connected (Emmanuel Esquivel, Kenny McPeek), 15-1
  6. Further Ado (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Brad Cox), 7-5
  7. Universe (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Kenny McPeek), 9-2

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Bet on the Golden Rod Stakes, Analysis, Picks

Bob Baffert’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) runner-up, Explora, was the 7-5 morning-line favorite, but she was scratched on Wednesday. Without her in the race, the likeliest winners look like Life of Joy (post 6, 4-1) and speedy Letmecounttheways (post 5, 9-2), both 2-for-2.

Life of Joy, a course-and-distance winner at Churchill, is trained by Cox. He won the Golden Rod last year with Good Cheer, who went on to win the Oaks.

The 1 1/16-mile, $400,000 Golden Rod is a road to the Kentucky Oaks points qualifier, with 10-5-3-2-1 points awarded to the top five finishers.

Post time is 5:54 p.m.

The picks: 1 Life of Joy, 2 Letmecounttheways, 3 Atropa

The field for the $400,000 Golden Rod Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Baracca (Axel Concepcion, Brendan Walsh), 15-1,
  2. Essential Coffee (Corey Lanerie, Steve Asmussen), 30-1
  3. Just Singing (Luan Machado, J. Kent Sweezey), 15-1
  4. Vita Mia (Junior Alvarado, Armando De La Cerda), 30-1
  5. Letmecounttheways (Joel Rosario, Mike Maker), 9-2
  6. Life of Joy (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Brad Cox), 4-1
  7. Raspberry (Luis Saez, Whit Beckman), 30-1
  8. Wonzee Weather (Chase Miller, Darrin Miller), 30-1
  9. Atropa (Jose Ortiz, Cherie DeVaux), 8-1
  10. Coco Connect (Adam Beschizza, John Ennis), 30-1
  11. Bella Ballerina (Tyler Gaffalione, Brendan Walsh), 10-1
  12. Explora (Flavien Prat, Bob Baffert), 7-5 (Scratch)
  13. The Grumpy Rabbit (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Kenny McPeek), 15-1
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