Sunday at Keeneland is a big day for turf fans, and the centerpiece is the 30th running of the Franklin Stakes, a Grade 2 at 5.5 furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares carrying a $400,000 purse. Eight horses are entered. The pace setup is interesting, the Baffert angle is generating real conversation, and the chalk has legitimate Grade 1 form on her side. Let's get into it.
At 5.5 furlongs on Keeneland's turf, post position matters. The rail is not always a gift at this distance on this course, especially in fall when turf sprint fields are compact, and speed horses tend to fan out early. Here is how the draw shakes out for this field.
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Usha | Flavien Prat | Bob Baffert | 4/1 |
| 2 | Itzel | Edgar Morales | John Ennis | 20/1 |
| 3 | Time to Dazzle | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Mark Casse | 8/1 |
| 4 | Pondering | Luis Saez | Brendan Walsh | 20/1 |
| 5 | Shoot It True | Yedsit Hazlewood | Wesley Ward | 9/2 |
| 6 | Kehoe Beach | Jose Ortiz | Wesley Ward | 7/2 |
| 7 | Ag Bullet | John Velazquez | Richard Baltas | 2/1 |
| 8 | Movin' On Up | Tyler Gaffalione | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 6/1 |
Last Updated on 10/10/2026
You can pull full past performances and field updates directly from BUSR, the authoritative source for entries, scratches, and speed figures heading into Sunday.
For serious handicapping of stakes races like this one, you need to work through the key actors before you start building tickets.
This is your chalk, and the form supports it. Baltas trains her, and she is a Grade 1 winner with legit turf sprint credentials. The question every handicapper is asking is whether she has rebounded from whatever form dip triggered the Keeneland target. Velazquez at 2-1 on a turf sprinter in a Grade 2 is not a bad spot, but the juice is thin if she hits. She is the anchor of most tickets here. Post 7 at 5.5 furlongs means she will need to find early position or trust the pace scenario to set up for her. Baltas has said a Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint follow-up is on the table if she runs well, which tells you this is a meaningful spot, not a prep. You do not aim a horse at a Grade 2 with a BC follow-up in mind and run her light.
This is the angle of the race. Bob Baffert shifting Usha to turf for the first time, drawing the rail, and slapping blinkers on her after a dirt win at Churchill Downs is not a casual move. Baffert doesn't haul a horse to Keeneland for a Grade 2 without strong workouts to back it. Flavien Prat on the inside post with blinkers in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint could mean she breaks sharp and uses that post cleanly. The risk is real; this is turf debut territory in a Grade 2, and plenty of horses that look sharp on dirt never click on the lawn. But at 5-1 or better, she belongs in your exotic bets. Underneath or even on top in a trifecta at that price, yes.
Ward running two horses in a turf sprint is as predictable as it gets at Keeneland, and he usually has them cranked. Both are pace factors. Kehoe Beach from post 2 is going to be near the lead or on it. Shoot It True has tactical speed. When Ward doubles up in a turf sprint, you have to respect that he controls the early fractions, which either wires the field or sets it up perfectly for a closer. Use both in exotics and let the race sort out which one gets the better trip.
Keeneland's fall turf sprint has a documented 41% win rate for early speed. That number isn't a coincidence; it reflects firm turf conditions and compact fields that let speed horses control their own destiny. With Ward's pair likely to push for early position and Usha breaking from the rail with blinkers, the front end of this race could get contested. A genuine speed duel sets up perfectly for Ag Bullet if she wants to stalk at 5.5 furlongs, or it opens the door for any genuine closer in the field.
If you are building a pace scenario, the shape of this race looks like this: Kehoe Beach and potentially Usha for the early lead, Shoot It True floating just behind, and Ag Bullet stalking from post 7 in the three- or four-path. If the speed gets into a real battle through the first quarter, the back half of the field gets a look. If one of the Ward horses controls it cleanly on their own, front speed wins again.
This is also a nice companion race on the Keeneland card alongside the Phoenix Stakes, and if you are building multi-race exotics, understanding the pace profile of both races helps you sequence your Pick 3 or Pick 4 legs intelligently.
Here is how to approach the exotic wagers without burning your bankroll on an eight-horse box that pays nothing.
Exacta: Key Ag Bullet on top over Usha, Kehoe Beach, and Shoot It True. Then reverse: key that trio on top over Ag Bullet. Six combinations. At a $2 base, that is $12. If Ag Bullet wins and the Ward horses fill out the bottom, you get a fair return. If Usha wins at 5-1 with Ag Bullet second, you are looking at real money.
Trifecta Wheel: Ag Bullet on top, Usha and Kehoe Beach in the middle, all in third. Also run Usha on top, Ag Bullet and Kehoe Beach underneath, field in third. Keep the $1 base and target a 15 to 20 combination ticket for around $15 to $20 total. The Baffert-Prat turf debut trifecta payoff could be significant if it lands.
Superfecta: Box Ag Bullet, Usha, Kehoe Beach, and Shoot It True in a four-horse $0.10 superfecta box. That is 24 combinations at $0.10 each, so $2.40. If those four fill the frame in any order, you collect. Superfectas in Grade 2 turf sprints at Keeneland can pay three figures even with a chalk winner if the exotics fill oddly underneath.
Pick 4 angle: If you are building a Pick 4 ticket into the Franklin Stakes, use Ag Bullet as a single or a double in the final leg and open up the races preceding it. The Franklin as a single saves you significant combinations in the legs before it, which lets you spread in earlier races where the form is less clear. That is the structural play for bettors who are in it for the multi-race sequence rather than just the sprint itself.
It is also worth checking whether your Franklin Stakes plays connect into any BC free bet promotions at US Racing ahead of the Breeders' Cup, since Baltas has openly said the Turf Sprint is next if Ag Bullet fires.
The overlay in this race is Usha if she drifts past 6-1 on the board. First-time turf horses trained by Baffert, with Prat up and blinkers added at sprint distance, aren't a random scatter shot. Baffert and Prat have run turf horses together long enough for this combination to carry real intent. If the public underestimates the turf debut angle and the board goes to 7-1 or 8-1, that is a legitimate win-bet opportunity on a small piece and a strong exotics investment underneath.
The 2025 Franklin went to Time to Dazzle by three and a quarter lengths, and Future Is Now's 2024 stakes record of 1:01.47 is a benchmark that shows fast fractions are possible at Keeneland in October. If Usha has the engine to compete at that pace level on turf, Baffert already knows it from the morning works. He is not guessing here.
If you enjoy digging into related fillies and mares stakes around this time of year, the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland runs nearby on the calendar and offers a useful class comparison point for mares running at the top of their conditions.
"Sunday analysis is up — Keeneland picks featuring the Grade 2 Franklin Stakes on turf. Full card preview and best bets inside. #FranklinStakes2026 #Keeneland"
Franklin Stakes 2026 Picks: Ag Bullet or Usha first-time on turf?
Bettors are debating whether Ag Bullet's experience and Grade 1 form gives her the edge, or if Baffert adding blinkers to Usha for her turf debut could be the angle of the race at 5.5f. The thread is active and the split seems roughly even between the two camps.
The conversation around this race is genuinely split between experienced bettors. You can follow what the community is discussing in real time on X (Twitter) and on Reddit.
The Franklin Stakes (G2) runs on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky. It is the 30th edition of the race, run at 5.5 furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares, with a $400,000 purse on the line.
Ag Bullet is the morning-line favorite at 2-1, drawing post 7 with jockey John Velazquez. She is a Grade 1 winner trained by Richard Baltas, who has openly pointed toward the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint as the next stop if she runs well on Sunday at Keeneland.
Bob Baffert adding blinkers and giving Usha the inside post with Flavien Prat is not an accident. Baffert rarely ships a first-time turf runner into a Grade 2 without strong workouts supporting it. She is a legitimate exotics threat at her morning-line price, but win-betting a turf debut in a Grade 2 field carries real risk. Use her underneath in trifectas and superfectas, and take a small win shot only if she drifts to 7-1 or better on the board.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
