Disarm, Hit Show Meet Again in Lukas Classic; Picks, Odds

Naming a major stakes for a racing personality is usually a posthumous honor. Fortunately, that’s not the case with the $500,000 Lukas Classic (G2) on Saturday night at Churchill Downs.

The 1 1/8-mile race originated in 2013 as the Homecoming Classic before being renamed in 2015 to honor Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

Hit Show. Coady Photo.

At 89, the irrepressible Lukas is still very much with us, as evidenced by his Preakness (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1) wins this year with Seize the Grey.

Too bad he doesn’t have a runner in this year’s Lukas Classic to completely square this circle.

What we do have is a competitive eight-horse field as the centerpiece of Churchill’s final “Downs after Dark” program. Night owls will note that post time for the Lukas is 10:40 p.m. ET.

Let’s delve into the race.

Hit Show will be well backed by the bettors based on his two wins in the last three starts. The gray 4-year-old launched a strong inside rally to capture the West Virginia Governor’s Cup (G3) at Charles Town most recently.

That was the path of lesser resistance as trainer Brad Cox opted for that race instead of the main event, the $1 million Charles Town Classic (G2). A win is a win, but we’re going to deduct points for ducking the big boys.

So that turns our focus to Disarm, who gets welcome class relief after three straight Grade 1 stakes: the Stephen Foster at Churchill along with the Whitney and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, both at Saratoga.

He didn’t win any of those tougher races, but he turned in several solid efforts, including a third in the JCGC.

He is the best closer in the field, so the long stretch run under the Twin Spires should play to his strength. Trainer Steve Asmussen is removing the blinkers, so the colt should be more relaxed early to save energy for later.

This is the second meeting between Hit Show and Disarm, who has gotten the better of him both times.

The first confrontation was last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) where Disarm was a hard-charging fourth while Hit Show flattened out in the late stages to get fifth.

They met again last summer at Saratoga in the Jim Dandy (G2) where Disarm was fourth, over seven lengths ahead of fifth-place finisher Hit Show.

Disarm parlayed the Jim Dandy effort into a second-place finish in the Travers Stakes (G1). As for Hit Show, he skipped town to finish sixth as the odds-on favorite in the Oklahoma Derby (G3).

Patterns do repeat. There is no reason to believe it will be any different this time.

For those who bet racing …

The Picks: 1 Disarm 2 Hit Show 3 Cooke Creek

The field for the $500,000 Lukas Classic (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

1 Stilleto Boy (Evin Roman, Ed Moger, Jr.), 20-1

2 Rattle N Roll (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Ken McPeek), 5-2

3 Happy American (Corie Lanerie, Neil Pessin), 20-1

4 Cooke Creek (Luis Saez, Mike Maker), 5-1

5 Disarm (Tyler Gaffalione, Steve Asmussen), 3-1

6 Hit Show (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox), 2-1

7 Bolzy (Francisco Arrieta, Donnie Von Hemel), 30-1

8 Warrior Jonny (Jose Ortiz, Phil Bauer), 5-1

 

 

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