Watch the Kentucky Derby (G1) replay and check out Renegade's horrific trip. How many lengths did it cost a colt who lost by only a neck? The best horse doesn't always win the Derby, and that's what happened on May 2.
“Renegade bumped with Albus at the start, was slammed again shortly after when Litmus Test came in, settled well back while saving ground, came under a ride into the second turn, picked his way through traffic while ranging into contention, angled to the far outside into the stretch, was bumped again when Incredibolt came out near the three-sixteenths pole, soldiered on taking dead aim at the leader, battled hard but was unable to resist the winner.”
Sounds more like a police report than a trackman's comment.
Renegade's determination and courage aren't an issue for Saturday's 158th Belmont Stakes (G1). But as a deep closer at speed-favoring Saratoga, pace is a major factor. Trainer Todd Pletcher said he isn't too concerned, perhaps because he entered Powershift as a rabbit.
“The way it's shaping up, there doesn't appear to be a lot of pace,” Pletcher said. “But if they're not going real fast, Renegade can be a little closer than he has been. He's adaptable enough to adjust to a really slow pace.”
He's done it twice. He cruised by 3 3/4 lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes, where the half-mile and 6-furlong fractions were a sluggish 48.30 seconds and 1:12.91. He blasted home in 11.74 seconds to a four-length romp in the Arkansas Derby (G1), where the splits were :47.80 and 1:12.52. So Pletcher isn't indulging in wishful thinking.
It feels like redemption time.
Here's a horse-by-horse analysis from the rail out, with trainer, jockey, and odds in parentheses:
Post time: 7:04 p.m. Saturday (NBC Sports)
| 2026 Belmont Stakes Odds | ||
| Official post positions set following the post-position draw on Monday, June 1, 2026. | ||
| PP | Horse / Trainer | Morning Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitruvian ManAntonio Fresu · D. O'Neill | 30/1 |
| 2 | PowershiftLuis Saez · T. Pletcher | 12/1 |
| 3 | Chief WallabeeJunior Alvarado · W. Mott | 3/1 |
| 4 | RenegadeIrad Ortiz Jr. · T. Pletcher | 2/1 |
| 5 | OttinhoDylan Davis · C. Brown | 20/1 |
| 6 | Growth EquityManny Franco · C. Brown | 12/1 |
| 7 | CommandmentJohn Velazquez · B. Cox | 6/1 |
| 8 | Emerging MarketFlavien Prat · C. Brown | 6/1 |
| 9 | Golden TempoJose Ortiz · C. DeVaux | 9/2 |
Last Updated on 06/01/2026
California-based colt has never shown much talent and hasn't run since finishing a distant third on April 4 in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He lacks early zip, has poor speed figures, and the highlight of a 1-for-6 career is a nose victory last year in a very slow race. He doesn't belong in the Belmont.
Likely pacesetter for Renegade will try to set quick fractions to aid his stablemate's late run. The Belmont Stakes betting odds of 12-1 are way too generous, probably because he's trained by Belmont master Pletcher (four wins, nine seconds). Powershift could have a major effect on the outcome, but won't be around at the finish.
If Powershift goes for the early lead, Mott said Chief Wallabee will try to stalk him. The addition of blinkers didn't make a big difference in the Derby. This 1-for-4 colt did show grit to run on gamely after being bumped near the midstretch. He finished fourth, beaten three lengths, but never contended for the win. He's 0-for-3 in graded stakes, performing well each time but never finishing the deal. The Belmont Stakes betting odds at 3-1 scream underlay; 5-1 or 6-1 seems more appropriate. Can't take a chronic “almost horse” at a short price.
Renegade's chances seemed hopeless early in the Derby, when it looked as if he might be knocked over the rail. The quick fractions suited his running style, but he had no luck in the race. Expect Powershift to help his barn buddy by setting a solid tempo. Count on Irad to work out a nice trip, and if he can unleash Renegade's explosive late burst, you'll see them in the winner's circle.
Nobody would give him a second look if he weren't trained by a future Hall of Famer. He's 1-for-4 overall and 0-for-2, beaten 11 lengths each time, in stakes. The half-brother to Hall of Famer Gun Runner has great genes, but hasn't shown much yet.
He's one of Brown's three entries in one of the few major stakes he's never won. He validated even-money odds with a two-length win over weak opponents in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3). Never out of the exacta in four career runs, but makes a big class jump into his first Grade 1. Will win more stakes but not this one.
Like many Derby runners, he had a lot of traffic trouble -- off slow, very wide on both turns, and jostled between horses in the stretch. The Belmont Stakes betting line on 6-1 feels juicy after he was rated one of the leading contenders on the first Saturday in May. He's won three stakes, the most in the field, and has excellent speed figures. After only one bad race, it seems he's a forgotten horse. Commandment looks like a viable, better-priced win alternative to Renegade and belongs in all exotic bets.
He was a "wise guy" horse leading up to the Derby, even though it was only his third career start. Winning the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) in just his second race was very impressive, and Golden Tempo was a length behind in third. This colt has serious talent and strong speed figures, and the Belmont Stakes betting odds at 6-1 are enticing.
At 23-1, he was an overlay in Louisville; 9-2 here feels just about right. DeVaux said she's not concerned about the outside post, considering he had No. 16 at Churchill. “It's kind of the same as in the Derby,” she said. “The field can go ahead of him, and he can drop in behind them.”
True, but what are the chances that all of Golden Tempo's main rivals -- Renegade, Commandment, Chief Wallabee -- will have rough trips again? It seems unlikely that everything will go in his favor for the second consecutive race.
The Picks: 1 Renegade, 2 Commandment, 3 Emerging Market, 4 Golden Tempo
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
