Key takeaways:
The 2025 American Pharoah Stakes (Grade I, for two-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles on dirt) at Santa Anita is one of the marquee juvenile events of the fall. It also carries points for the Road to the Kentucky Derby and is a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
This year’s field is small (six starters), but chock full of intrigue, with Bob Baffert training four of them; he has a dominating presence in the race (13 all-time wins in this event). The absence of some other top juveniles makes this a more open affair than usual, putting pressure on connections to exploit their advantages.
With speed, tactical versatility, and stamina all playing roles, here are the three best bets to win this year’s edition.
Desert Gate is the deserving morning-line favorite. The Bob Baffert trainee has shown early precocity and the ability to handle different trip scenarios. With Juan J. Hernandez aboard, he won’t be shy about pressing the pace or taking a stalking position, depending on how the race unfolds.
His credentials suggest he’s ready to take the “next step.” He’s run well in juvenile stakes, and his speed figures project favorably against this field. Given that many in this field are lightly raced, his form edge is real.
One of the strengths Desert Gate brings is tactical flexibility. If he breaks cleanly and senses weakness, he can take the lead; if pressured, he can ratchet back and stalk. On a track like Santa Anita, where the early fractions often dictate the outcome, having multiple tactical gears is a significant advantage.
A risk: with his short odds, any misstep or troubled trip (due to traffic or a tight inside draw) could be costly. Also, if the pace is slow and a closer lures him into a speed duel, he might be vulnerable late.
Overall, Desert Gate is the logical single for win bettors and the cornerstone of any exacta/trifecta strategy here.
Kristofferson is the “second” pick in my book, and perhaps the most dangerous threat to Desert Gate. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by veteran Mike E. Smith, he combines class and experience that few in this juvenile group can match.
While he doesn’t necessarily flash raw brilliance early, he brings consistency and the ability to run his race. If Desert Gate is used up pressing or overextends trying to dominate, Kristofferson is well placed to pounce late.
His style, stalking or sitting just off the pace, works nicely here, especially if the early fractions are moderate. Smith is adept at timing runs; if he can keep Kristofferson in striking range without burning up energy, that late kick might carry him past the favorite.
The main question is pace: if the race turns into a sprint early, will Kristofferson have enough to fend off speedier types? Also, since this is a two-turn race (1 1/16 miles), stamina is a modest question, though his breeding suggests he can handle it.
Given his price and reliability, Kristofferson is the ideal “A/B” pairing with Desert Gate in vertical wagers, and a must-use in multi-leg bets.
Civil Liberty is my value play in this field. He may not boast the flashiest credentials, but his consistency, tactical adaptability, and chance to benefit from pace collapse make him attractive at 5-1.
He doesn’t need to set the pace; he can settle midpack, conserve energy, and swing in late. If Desert Gate presses hard or faces pressure from other speed types (Balboa, Intrepido potentially), Civil Liberty might inherit the race in the stretch.
His overall profile: solid, perhaps slightly underestimated, and capable of outrunning his odds if conditions fall in his favor.
The risk is obvious: if Desert Gate establishes an unassailable lead or the pace is too slow, Civil Liberty may have too much ground to make up. Also, any trouble navigating traffic or getting blocked could hamper his run.
Still, as a third leg in your “playbook,” Civil Liberty offers a decent payoff potential without having to stretch too far beyond credibility.
This year’s American Pharoah Stakes lacks a runaway standout, opening the door to tactical drama and late kickers. The pace setup will be critical. If Desert Gate presses hard or someone else forces fast fractions, that makes life easier for closers and late runners. If the pace is tepid, the frontrunners might hold on longer.
Use those three as your core for win bets, exactas, and trifectas. Pair Desert Gate with Kristofferson as the A side, and sprinkle Civil Liberty as your wildcard. Because the Breeders’ Cup and the Road to the Derby loom, this race isn’t just about juvenile glory; it could shape which young horses make their move into 2026.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
