The 43rd running of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup goes Saturday at Keeneland, and this year's edition is one of the more layered 11-filly fields we have seen in a while. You have got a dominant Canadian classic winner making her first stateside Grade 1 turf start, a sharp Del Mar Oaks winner sitting on a big form cycle, a European shipper flying under the radar, and a Chad Brown runner who could be the best of the bunch if the pace sets up right. This race rewards homework. Let's get into it, horse by horse.
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haute Diva | Keith Asmussen | Patrick Biancone | 30/1 |
| 2 | Luster | John Velazquez | Josie Carroll | 5/2 |
| 3 | Tam Tam | Junior Alvarado | Phil Bauer | 4/1 |
| 4 | Faithful Departed | Jose Ortiz | Grant Forster | 7/2 |
| 5 | Turner's Charm | Ben Curtis | Brendan Walsh | 20/1 |
| 6 | Braida (FR) | Vincent Cheminaud | Francis-Henri Graffard | 8/1 |
| 7 | Storm's Wake | Tyler Gaffalione | Brian Lynch | 10/1 |
| 8 | Lookin At Diamond | Julien Leparoux | Leonard Powell | 20/1 |
| 9 | Kensington Lane (IRE) | Joel Rosario | Phil D'Amato | 8/1 |
| 10 | Deep Learning | Flavien Prat | Chad Brown | 12/1 |
| 11 | Soloist | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Kenny McPeek | 20/1 |
Last Updated on 10/07/2026
This is where most of the public money is headed, and for good reason. Luster dismantled a mixed-gender field in the King's Plate at Woodbine by seven and a quarter lengths. That kind of margin against males, on turf, at a mile and a quarter demands respect. She comes into Keeneland with an unbeaten record on this course's turf, and trainer J. Carroll is putting John Velazquez back on her back. Johnny V does not get on horses to make up the numbers in a $750,000 Grade 1. The knock on Luster is that the King's Plate field was not a Grade 1-quality group of fillies, and she now has to handle a completely different class of competition. The question is not whether she can run. The question is whether her speed figures hold up against horses who have been running at this level all year. At 5-2, she is fair value if you believe in the Canadian classic form. If she fires her A game at Keeneland, she wins. The TwinSpires expert community, including analyst John Mucciolo, has her on top.
HorseRacingNation named Tam Tam their top pick despite Luster being the chalk, and that is the kind of split opinion that creates betting opportunities. The Del Mar Oaks winner brings legitimate Grade 1 turf filly credentials to the table. Her figures at Del Mar in the Oaks were sharp, and she has been pointed at this race as a target all fall. The pace scenario could set up perfectly for her running style. If she stalks the pace and gets a clean trip off the rail, she is dangerous. At 4-1, she is not a screaming overlay, but she represents the most complete form package in the field. This is your most likely winner if Luster does not transfer.
Bill Mott isn't sending a horse to the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup without a plan, and putting Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons at post 1 suggests he thinks she can get position early. The inside post at Keeneland on the turf is not a death sentence, especially if you can tuck in and save ground through the first turn. ABR named Faithful Departed their top pick, citing her Keeneland turf form. Mott on a Grade 1 stage, Irad aboard, and a favorable trip scenario if the pace opens up. At 6-1, she is in a price range worth single-race win consideration.
Chad Brown shippers at Keeneland in the fall on the turf. You know the drill. Brown does not enter horses in $750,000 Grade 1 races to collect a check. Deep Learning's work tab has drawn attention on the forums, and at 12-1 on the morning line, there is genuine overlay potential here if the pace scenario sets up for a closer. Brown regularly finds ways to get a horse placed in this spot. She belongs in your exotic coverage at minimum.
The European shipper angle is always worth examining at Keeneland in October. The turf course plays to European form, and Graffard is not shipping Braida across the Atlantic to run fifth. She is a French stakes winner who presumably fits the turf profile here. The unknowns: how does she ship, does she handle the Keeneland surface, and can she handle the step up in class against domestic Grade 1 form? Those are real questions. But at 8-1 there is enough cushion to include her in trifectas and superfectas. The betting community on X has been all over this angle all week.
ABR named Storm's Wake their live longshot, and the price is attractive enough to warrant a small exotic investment. If the pace collapses up front, a pace presser type can steal this kind of race. Don't use it as a single-race win bet. Use as bottom coverage in your superfectas.
The pace scenario here is critical. Luster from post 6 is likely to press or stalk near the front. If Faithful Departed at post 1 gets position early, you could see a fast early pace that sets up the closers. That is where Tam Tam and Deep Learning come into play. If Luster gets a soft lead and dictates terms, the field chases an in-form horse that hasn't been beaten on this course. Pace makes the race, and right now the setup leans slightly toward the stalker-to-closer profile.
Exacta: Key Luster over Tam Tam, Faithful Departed, Braida. Also key Tam Tam over Luster, Faithful Departed. Cost: roughly $12-16 depending on structure.
Trifecta: Box Luster, Tam Tam, Faithful Departed for a $12 trifecta box. Add Deep Learning as a fourth in a partial wheel: Luster/Tam Tam over Faithful Departed/Deep Learning/Braida. Total investment in the $30-40 range gives solid coverage.
Superfecta: ABR's recommended superfecta was 4-2-6-3, which is Tam Tam, Braida, Luster, Storm's Wake. That is a legitimate ticket at a $1 base. Consider also boxing Luster, Tam Tam, Faithful Departed, Deep Learning in a $1 superfecta box for $24. That covers the main scenarios without breaking the bankroll.
Value play: Deep Learning at 12-1 is the spot. Chad Brown, fall Keeneland turf, closer profile, big work tab. If the pace collapses and she gets into the clear turning for home, she can beat these at a price. Small win single is not crazy. Definitely belongs in your exotics.
If you are a Pick 4 player working the late sequence at Keeneland, this race is a natural key race for multi-race wagers. Use Luster and Tam Tam as your keys, with Faithful Departed and Deep Learning as savers.
"Don't miss the 2026 QEII Challenge Cup at Keeneland this Saturday. FS2 and FanDuel TV have you covered at 5:16 PM ET. Free stream options also available via Keeneland.com and YouTube. #QEII2026"
"LUSTER is a dominant winner and stays perfect in race 4 at Keeneland for trainer @jcarrollracing with @ljlmvel aboard! 💪🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay"
"Sat.: $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S. at Keeneland, Field & Picks Discussion"
Active thread debating Luster's King's Plate form vs. Grade 1 turf winners Tam Tam and Kensington Lane, and whether Chad Brown's Deep Learning is a live longshot at 12-1 in the 2026 QEII field.
The conversation across X and racing forums centers on one core debate: does Luster's King's Plate margin translate to Grade 1 turf filly competition at Keeneland? Most of the serious handicappers acknowledge the performance was eye-catching, but the class question remains open. The European shipper Braida and the pace scenario for Deep Learning are the secondary debates worth tracking. You can follow the full conversation on X and on Reddit.
Luster is the 5-2 morning-line favorite. She won the King's Plate at Woodbine by seven and a quarter lengths against a mixed-gender field, carries an unbeaten record on the Keeneland turf, and has John Velazquez back in the saddle for trainer J. Carroll. Several expert handicappers, including TwinSpires analyst John Mucciolo, have her on top for Saturday.
No. The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is not part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series.
The 43rd running of the $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) Presented by Dixiana runs Saturday, October 10, 2026, at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. Post time is scheduled for 5:16 PM ET. The race is televised live on FS2, with a free stream available on Keeneland.com and the KeenelandYouTube channel.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
