Only one thing is clear right away: Sovereignty is the standout among this year’s 3-year-old crop. He enters Saturday’s 2025 Travers Stakes at Saratoga as the overwhelming favorite, and many believe he’s not only the most likely winner of the Grade 1 race but also on track to lock up divisional honors at the Eclipse Awards. In fact, Sovereignty could break a record for Bill Mott on this Travers Stakes.
But being the most likely winner doesn’t automatically mean he’s the smartest betting option. Morning-lines has Sovereignty pegged at 2-5, a price that suggests he would need to win more than 70% of the time to offer value. For perspective, that would make him the shortest-priced Travers favorite since American Pharoah (7-20 in 2015), and even lower than stars like Bernardini (2006) and Street Sense (2007). Historically, only Easy Goer in 1989 went off at shorter odds.
Sovereignty’s résumé in 2025 explains why so many bettors view him as close to unbeatable. He swept the first and third legs of the Triple Crown, winning both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes with authority. In the Derby, he proved his tactical versatility by sitting just off the early pace before unleashing a decisive stretch run, a performance that showcased both speed and stamina. Skipping the Preakness was a strategic decision by trainer Bill Mott to keep him fresh, and the plan paid off. In the Belmont, Sovereignty handled the grueling 1 ½ miles with ease, drawing clear of the field in the stretch and stamping himself as the premier distance colt of his generation.
What makes him so difficult to oppose is his ability to adapt to different race scenarios. Sovereignty has shown he can sit behind a hot pace or even press the front if necessary, and his long stride allows him to sustain momentum when others are fading. Add in the fact that he’s been remarkably consistent against the top level of competition, and you have a horse that forces rivals to run career-best efforts just to stay in his shadow. For handicappers, this combination of proven class, versatility, and stamina explains why the 2025 Travers Stakes feels like his race to lose.
So where do you look if you’re trying to beat the favorite?
The most obvious candidate is Magnitude, who showed brilliance earlier this season in the Risen Star (G2), arguably one of the strongest Kentucky Derby preps. Although injury kept him out of the rest of the Triple Crown trail, his Iowa Derby comeback suggested he still has the tactical speed and finishing power to be dangerous here.
The concern is price. With morning lines listing him at 2-1, there’s a chance he’ll be overbet and offer little return. Still, he remains the most credible challenger.
Things get interesting when you factor in Strategic Focus and Bracket Buster, two runners with enough tactical ability to pressure the pace. The question is whether either can sustain it over the Travers’ demanding 1 1/4 miles.
Sovereignty deserves his reputation and remains the horse to beat in the 2025 Travers Stakes, but betting smart means looking past reputation alone. The current Travers Stakes odds suggest the favorite may be overvalued, leaving opportunities with horses like Magnitude or even price plays like Strategic Focus and Bracket Buster.
Saratoga’s “Midsummer Derby” has a long history of upsets, and while Sovereignty may very well add his name to the record books, bettors searching for value will want to consider the alternatives before placing their wagers.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
