Take a look at Contrary Thinking’s past performances, jockey, trainer, morning-line odds and full analysis heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
At the age of 5, this Into Mischief gelding has made two starts beyond a mile. In the first – his first stakes start of any kind (the 9-furlong Whitney (G1) on Aug. 2 at Saratoga) -- he was eased after running close to the early pace and finishing last of nine, beaten 68 lengths. Two months later, the Chad Brown trainee returned in the 1 ¼-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), faring somewhat better (could it get worse?) as he led through splits of :23, 46.96 and 1:11.92 before fading to finish seventh behind winner Antiquarian in one of the more eventful editions of the race in recent memory.
Contrary Thinking’s presence in the 1 ¼ mile Breeders’ Cup Classic represents no delusional thinking on the part of Brown or owner Peter Brant, however. He is there, simply, to ensure an honest pace for stablemate Sierra Leone, that role having been fulfilled (unwittingly or not) in last year’s Classic by Japan’s Derma Sotagake, who set fractions of 22.43, 44.96 and 1:09.44 prior to finishing 13th at nearly 43-1.
You likely would not get those odds in Saturday’s race on Contrary Thinking, who was sent off at 70.75-1 in the Whitney, those numbers slightly improving to 70.25-1 in the Gold Cup. Brown stoutly defended the gelding’s entry in the Classic.
“I just want to have some room for my horse (Sierra Leone) just to have his honest race, and if he’s good enough to win, fine,’’ Brown said. “If he’s not, I’d like to exit the race with no excuses that he had his chance.”
As for Contrary Thinking, Brown added: “I’ve done pacemakers in a race and they’ve won. Last year in the Flower Bowl (G2), I ran a pacemaker for McKulick, and I had a Dubawi filly named Idea Generation, and with [Florent} Geroux on, who’s riding this horse, she took them all the way, and that’s happened numerous times. It’s a big purse, maybe the horse will get loose here. Who knows?”
This will be the third straight time Contrary Thinking has been entered as a rabbit for Sierra Leone, so anticipate him going straight to the front and setting a fast enough pace so that Fierceness (and stablemate Mindframe) are forced to use themselves up just staying in contention until the far turn, when Baeza, Forever Young, Journalism, Sovereignty and, of course, Sierra Leone move into contention.
Notes: Contrary Thinking has two victories to his credit, having broken his maiden last April going 6 furlongs at Aqueduct, and taking a 1-mile allowance June 25 at the same venue. Other than the roughly run Whitney, which garnered him an Equibase speed figure of 10, Contrary Thinking’s not-unrespectable numbers range from 80 to 96, the latter of which he earned in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The bay gelding’s most recent workout was Oct. 25 on Belmont’s training track, where he covered 4 furlongs in 49.77.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
