Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Odds: Burnham Square Faces Tough Field; Odds, Picks

Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Odds: Burnham Square Faces Tough Field; Odds, Picks

In his first start after breaking his maiden in his third try, Burnham Square went last to first in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at speed-favoring Gulfstream Park. No one was more surprised by his rapid development than trainer Ian Wilkes.

“I'm very happy with what he's done, but if I told you I knew he was something good before I ran him, I'd be lying,” Wilkes said 18 months ago.

Since then, the 4-year-old gelding won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and ran fifth in the Haskell Stakes (G1). That's when Wilkes decided to put Burnham Square on the grass, a move that turned him into a star.

His turf debut at Kentucky Downs last summer in the 1 5/16-mile Nashville Derby (G3) was unexpectedly good, losing a head bob at odds of 13-1. Although Wilkes was encouraged, he chose to give Burnham Square the rest of the year off instead of trying to make the Breeders' Cup.

“He's had a long year,” Wilkes said. “I'll keep him on the grass and bring him back next year. He's a gelding, and I've got to take care of him. I'd like to have him as an 8-year-old.”

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Burnham Square Betting: 2-1 Favorite Loves Turf

The surface switch couldn't have worked out better. Burnham Square comes into Saturday's 1 1/2-mile Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs on a four-stakes winning streak. The $2 million Grade 2 is a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) on Oct. 31 at Keeneland. It also drew last year's Turf champion, Ireland-based Ethical Diamond, and Tiffany, a recent Group 1 winner in Germany.

“It's a very intriguing race, and it'll be a fun challenge,” Wilkes said. “You have the Europeans coming and the local horses, so the competition is getting deeper.”

Burnham Square, with regular rider Brian Hernandez, Jr., is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in a field of 10, with Ethical Diamond at 3-1 and Tiffany at 9-2. Also at 9-2 is Fort George, who lost a photo finish in Saratoga's Bowling Green (G2) to defending Turf Cup champ Ole Crazy Bone (8-1).

Top Challengers? Try Ethical Diamond, Tiffany

Ethical Diamond has world-class connections, with European greats Willie Mullins training and Ryan Moore riding. Tiffany isn't nearly as accomplished as the top two but is 13-for-13 in the money on grass.

Ethical Diamond is 3-for-6 going 12 furlongs, including his Breeders' Cup victory. He prepped for the Turf Cup with a head victory over Group 2 winner Green Impact in the 1 1/2-mile Ballyroan Stakes (G3) at Leopardstown.

“He had to work a bit harder than I thought,” Mullins said. “We're looking at the Breeders' Cup and working back from there.”

The even-money favorite's rebound came after flops in the Dubai Stakes (G1), fifth by 6 1/2 lengths, and Royal Ascot's Hardwicke Stakes (G2), ninth by 9 1/4 lengths.

Mullins returns to Kentucky Downs for the first time since 1990.

“I am looking forward to visiting Kentucky Downs again,” Mullins said. “The last time I was there was the opening of the racetrack, then known as Dueling Grounds, when my father [Paddy] trained a [jumps] winner there.”

Tiffany is 2-for-7 with five seconds going 1 1/2 miles, and Burnham Square is 2-for-2.

“The race being a mile and a half will be more to his liking,” Wilkes said. “He'll appreciate the added distance. The farther they go, the better for him.”

Although Burnham Square has the advantage of a strong race over the quirky course, he hasn't faced the top-class competition that Ethical Diamond has met. He upset Rebel's Romance, one of the world's best grass runners, in the Turf. Burnham Square narrowly defeated mediocre fields in his last two races, the 1 1/4-mile Arlington Million (G1) and the ungraded Chorleywood.  We'll see whether he can step up against by far the best turf horses he's ever faced.

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The Picks: 1 Burnham Square, 2 Tiffany, 3 Ethical Diamond

The Field for the $2 million Kentucky Downs Turf Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

# Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Troubleshooting (KY) T Gaffalione G D Foley 3-1
2 We're in Trouble (KY) Y Hazlewood M W McCarthy 30-1
3 Mondogetsbuckets (KY) F Geroux C M Block 12-1
4 Beach Gold (KY) K J Asmussen P L Biancone 20-1
5 Quereme Pass (ARG) L Saez J F D'Angelo 15-1
6 Possiblemente (KY) J L Ortiz J Sharp 10-1
7 Usually Wrong (KY) G Franco R Diodoro 12-1
8 Okiro (KY) J Bravo L Garoffalo 6-1
9 Golden Afternoon (KY) J A Torres N Vaccarezza 15-1
10 My Boy Prince (ON) J R Velazquez M E Casse 9-2
11 John the Beer Man (KY) K Carmouche R Atras 4-1
12 Durante (KY) J Castellano D Jacobson 30-1
13 Let My People Go (KY) (AE) A Fresu M J Maker 12-1
14 Anmer Hall (KY) (AE) A Fresu P Eurton 15-1
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