For those who bet on horse racing, it is well known that Saratoga Race Course is also called the “Graveyard of Favorites" as well as the “Graveyard of Champions.”
Either works as some of racing’s biggest upsets have taken place at the iconic upstate New York racetrack. A few examples: Upset (of course!) over the great Man o’War in the 1919 Sanford Stakes; Jim Dandy (100-1) over 1930 Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox in the Travers Stakes; Onion over 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat in the 1973 Whitney Stakes; and Keen Ice (16-1) over 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (3-5) in the Travers.
On Saturday, Golden Tempo, the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner, takes on nine rivals as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 157th edition of the 1 ¼-mile Travers – the signature race of the summer season aka the ‘Midsummer Derby.’
The field is deep. Also entered are Derby runner-up and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) winner Renegade (3-1), Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Napoleon Solo (8-1) and Haskell Stakes (G1) winner Baby Vino (10-1).
But is there a shocker in the cards? Like Adonis in 1945, who won and returned a modern era record $53.20 on a $2 win bet?
According to the New York Racing Association, the betting favorite has won 53 of the last 120 Travers – or 44.1% of the time. History says betting favorites win races at a 33-38% clip, finish first or second at a 62% rate, and finish in the top 3 67-74% of the time.
The longshots Saturday include Haskell winner Baby Vino (10-1), with Paco Lopez riding, Emerging Market (15-1) for trainer Chad Brown and Ocelli, the richest maiden in racing despite an 0-for-9 record, at 20-1.
For handicappers, it’s all about past performances, but history should be considered before placing your wagers.
So, let’s start here: The Travers betting favorite has won four of the past five years.
Last year, Sovereignty delivered as the 3-10 favorite in a big way, blowing away the field by a record-equaling 10 lengths.
In 2024, 7-5 favorite Sierra Leone was third behind winner Fierceness (7-2 third choice) and runner-up Thorpedo Anna (3-1 second choice).
In 2023, favorite Forte was fourth behind winner Arcangelo (5-2 second choice) and longshots Disarm (12-1) and Tapit Trice (13-1).
In 2022, even-money favorite Epicenter won.
In 2021, odds-on favorite Essential Quality won.
In 2020, odds-on favorite Tiz the Law won.
Beginning in 2000, the favorite has won 10 of 26 Travers (a win rate of 38.4, less than the overall average of 44.1% over the past 120 editions.
How the Travers favorites fared from 2000-2025, with odds, finish, and winner in parentheses as warranted:
-- Richard Rosenblatt
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
