Iowa Derby Odds and Picks: Is Maximum Effort Primed for First Victory

Iowa Derby Odds and Picks: Is Maximum Effort Primed for First Victory

A year ago, Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen targeted the Iowa Derby for the return of Magnitude, his promising 3-year-old who missed the Triple Crown season with an ankle chip that required surgery.

After five months off, Magnitude rolled to a 9 ¾-lenght victory to cap the Iowa Festival of Racing weekend at Prairie Meadows. The comeback romp was just the start of what might lead to a 4-year-old championship as Magnitude is now riding a four-race win streak that includes recent wins in the Dubai World Cup (G1) and the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1).

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On Saturday night, Asmussen is sending out Maximum Effort with a simple goal -- win a race for the first time after seven losses to start his career.

The $250,000 Iowa Derby is the co-feature on a 10-race card that also includes the $300,000 Cornhusker Handicap (G3), the $100,000 Prairie Gold Juvenile, and the $100,000 Iowa Sprint.

Post time for the 1 1/16-mile Iowa Derby is 9:35 p.m. ET.

Bet on Iowa Derby: Asmussen looks for sixth win in race

Asmussen fares well at Prairie Meadows – Magnitude gave him a record fifth win in the Iowa Derby. He seeks his sixth with 10-1 longshot Maximum Effort in a nine-horse field.

Desert Gate, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is the 9-5 favorite but is also cross-entered in the Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Saturday night. Bricklin, at 6-1 for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, is also cross-entered in the Indiana Derby.

The racing festival kicks off Friday night with the Iowa Distaff and the Iowa Oaks as the features.

Maximum Effort will get the services of Hall of Famer Mike Smith and leave from post 3. The Maxfield colt has run third in his last three races, most recently behind Desert Gate and Chad Allan in the Texas Derby. Chad Allan, a maiden winner in 10 starts, is also entered at 12-1. Smith will be aboard for the first time.

Desert Gate cross-entered in the Indiana Derby

Baffert has four victories in both the Iowa Derby and Indiana Derby, so we’ll see where Desert Gate ends up. A chestnut son of Curlin, Desert Gate bypassed the Triple Crown races, but has won two of his last three, the Hot Springs and the Texas Derby. Last out, though, he was a distant fourth in the Ohio Derby (G3) on June 20. The front-runner leaves from gate 3 under Florent Geroux.

If he opts for the Indiana Derby, he’d likely be the favorite in a field of nine. Desert Gate has won four of eight races.

Who to include in the winning trifecta?

J J Grey, the second choice at 4-1 on the morning line, would likely become the favorite if Desert Gate runs in Indiana. The gray son of Street Boss, trained by Kenny McPeek, has produced victories in his last two starts, stalking the pace both times and winning an optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park on May 2 and beating Canned Heat by 3 ¾ lengths in Prairie Meadows Mile on June 13. Canned Heat is 12-1 in the Iowa Derby.

The field also includes a pair of Preakness Stakes (G1) also-rans: The Hell We Did (9-2) was seventh in the second leg of the Triple Crown; Crupper (8-1) was 13th of 14.

“The Festival of Racing weekend is one of the highlights of our racing season,’’ said Brian Ohorilko, Prairie Meadows Chief Executive Officer. “The caliber of competition we'll see on the track is a testament to the strength and reputation of this event.”

The Picks: 1 Desert Gate, 2 Maximum Effort, 3 J J Grey

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The field for the $250,000 Iowa Derby, from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. The Hell We Did (Ramon Vazquez, Todd Fincher), 9-2
  2. Crupper (Rajiv Maragh, Donnie Von Hemel), 8-1
  3. Maximum Effort (Mike Smith, Steve Asmussen), 10-1
  4. J J Grey (Emmanuel Esquivel, Kenny McPeek), 4-1
  5. Desert Gate (Florent Geroux, Bob Baffert), 9-5
  6. Outmatch (Elvin Gonzalez, Kevin Eikleberry), 20-1
  7. Bricklin (Kizushi Kimura, Rodolphe Brisset), 6-1
  8. Canned Heat (Alex Birzer, Jesse Oberlander), 12-1
  9. Chad Allan (Alfredo Triana, Jr., Bob Young), 12-1
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