If you made a future bet on Renegade at double-digit odds, you were congratulating yourself after his Arkansas Derby (G1) runaway made him the consensus favorite in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
But the horse racing gods are fickle and merciless, and you cringed Saturday when he drew the rail, which hasn't produced a winner since 1986.
Trainer Todd Pletcher and his wife, Tracy, were on a flight to Louisville as she followed the draw on Wi-Fi. Pletcher told reporters that when she said, “Renegade got the 1,” he reached for the air sickness bag.
That cracked up the media, but post 1 often causes serious problems in the Derby. It's the third time in six years that a Pletcher colt drew the inside, and Known Agenda (eighth, 2021) and Mo Donegal (fifth, 2022) both had bad trips. But being a Hall of Famer, all-time money leader, and two-time Derby champion helps put things into perspective. Pletcher is a low-key, stoic guy, and predictably, he was philosophical about the situation.
“It's not ideal,” he said, “but we'll do what we can with it.”
Forty years ago, Bill Shoemaker guided Ferdinand, a deep closer, to the winner's circle, so it can be done. Renegade also likes to come from behind, and he has the world's hottest jockey in Irad Ortiz, Jr.
“Renegade's natural running style is to settle and make one run, and we're not looking to change that,” Pletcher said. “His final eighth of a mile has been exceptional. Irad has been riding in great form, and he has a lot of confidence in the horse.”
Ortiz, like co-owner Mike Repole, has won almost every important race except the Derby. Ortiz is 0-for-9, with his best finish fourth. Repole is 0-for-8, never better than fifth.
“I know the Derby means a lot to Mike,” Pletcher said. “It would mean a lot for our team to do well for him. It's been a frustrating race for him. I think Forte was probably the most frustrating one, being scratched the day of the [2023] race and then seeing Mage, whom he beat twice in Florida, win.
“Mike has won the Belmont and the Travers, races he dreamed of winning when he was younger and was getting into the game. I think now the Derby would be on top of his list.”
Repole became a self-made billionaire with a relentless “can-do” attitude. He responded to the bad draw with characteristic optimism and defiance.
“I wouldn't trade places with anyone heading into the Kentucky Derby,” he wrote on social media. “I'll take Todd Pletcher, Irad, and the best horse in the race, Renegade, from the 1 post every time.
“Is it ideal? No. But I'll take the 1 post over 15 to 20 with Renegade's closing style.”
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
