Kentucky Derby (G1) contender Emerging Market looks to overcome history by becoming the second horse to win the Run for the Roses in just the third start of his career. His victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on March 21 makes him a potential ‘wise-guy’ horse to bet on the first Saturday in May.
Ever heard of Leonatus? I didn’t think so. He won the Kentucky Derby in 1883 and made history, although nobody knew it at the time. He earned the trophy in only his third lifetime start, the only horse ever to do that. Since 1937, four tried it and finished far back -- ninth, 15th, 18th, and sixth.
Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat are hopeful that Emerging Market can overcome all that history on May 2. The precocious son of Candy Ride moved into the Derby picture on March 21 when he won the Louisiana Derby by a head over 21-1 shot Pavlovian. The victory didn’t surprise the bettors, because Emerging Market was the 2-1 favorite.
He did everything right for Prat that day in New Orleans, rallying four wide to get up in time at the end of 1 3/16 miles, the longest of the Derby preps. His time and speed figure were impressive, too, especially for a colt whose resume consisted of one race at a mile and 40 yards at Tampa Bay Downs.
“He’s a very athletic horse,” Brown said. “He’s not big. He’s a lightly made horse that has gears, and he has developed. We were lucky enough to pick him up for a reasonable sum [$185,000], and he has developed. It’s not always the big, fancy, expensive yearlings that develop into good horses. They come in all shapes and sizes.”
For many years, Brown has been an elite trainer, and he’s a certainty for the Hall of Fame. He’s won five Eclipse Awards and more than 3,000 races, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and two Preakness Stakes (G1). But the Derby has eluded him -- he's 0-for-9 -- just as it did his mentor, the late, great Bobby Frankel.
Prat, a 33-year-old transplanted Frenchman, has become one of the world’s leading jockeys. Both of Emerging Market’s starts impressed him.
“In his first race, he showed a lot of professionalism,” Prat said. “At the Fair Grounds, he fought hard; it was a good run.”
He’ll have to improve to be competitive at Churchill Downs, which is asking an awful lot.
His Equibase rating is listed at 91, right in the middle of the Derby field, and his top Equibase speed figure is 96 from the Louisiana Derby.
Derby. He is one of several closers in the field, finishing strong and outdueling Pavlovian in the deep stretch to win.
Off his two starts, Emerging Market is likely to settle back in the larger Derby field and begin making his move around the far turn and look for room to run in the stretch.
Besides his lack of experience, Emerging Market never has faced the caliber of horses he’ll meet in Louisville. Those are intimidating odds to overcome, and his price won’t justify the risk.
No bets. (Once the morning-line is out on April 25, check back.)
- Jockey Flavien Prat is 1-for-8 in the Derby, although he’s never crossed the finish line in front. In perhaps the strangest Run for the Roses of all time. He was awarded the 2019 race on a 65-1 shot Country House after the disqualification of Maximum Security for interference
- Trainer Chad Brown ran his first Derby horse in 2013, when Normandy Invasion was fourth
- Klaravich Stables, perennially one of the nation’s leading stables, is 0-for-4 in the Derby. Its best finish was with Brown’s Practical Joke (fifth, 2017). Two weeks later, he won the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
