San Simeon Stakes Odds: Six Set to Navigate Santa Anita’s Downhill

San Simeon Stakes Odds: Six Set to Navigate Santa Anita’s Downhill

The $100,000 San Simeon Stakes (G3), first contested in 2004 as the Daytona Handicap before it was renamed in 2016 and then upgraded to graded status in 2009, will again be contested this year at 6 ½ furlongs on Santa Anita’s unique downhill course.

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Sumter is the 5-2 Favorite in an evenly matched field

Heading into Saturday’s renewal, the small field of six is led by morning-line favorite Sumter (5-2), a 7-year-old gelding from the Richard Mandella barn who will have Mike Smith aboard.

The son of War Front is a proven turf specialist with some downhill success, who stalked and closed to finish second in the Joe Hernandez Stakes (G2) over this course and distance last December and also won the Lure Stakes twice at a mile.

His patient mid-pack style and multiple Santa Anita turf stakes wins make him ideally suited to the hillside’s demands despite a recent fourth in the Clockers’ Corner Stakes last month. He will have to improve on a sixth in this event in 2023 and fourth in 2024 (he was sidelined and on the bench for last year’s renewal).

Is Genius Jimmy a Smart Bet?

Genius Jimmy (3-1) is a 6-year-old gelding for trainer Michael McCarthy, who will be ridden by Juan Hernandez. He brings a sharp recent allowance form at Santa Anita, including a strong second last month at 1 ⅛ miles, and the son of Jimmy Creed seems to prefer pressing or even leading and firm turf. Though he steps up in class, he has the speed and positioning from the one hole to thrive down the hill.

Sorrento Sky (3-1), a 5-year-old Ireland-bred son of Prince of Lir, is a consistent stakes performer who finished third in last year’s San Simeon and is coming off a second-place finish in the recent Clockers’ Corner. He has shown tactical speed while stalking or closing in sprints and routes, which will be handy here as the field speeds down the hill.

Florent Geroux rides for the first time for trainer Phil D’Amato. Sorrento Sky breaks from the outside post 6.

Analysis of the rest of the field

Seal Team (4-1), also from the Mandella barn, is loaded with class. The 6-year-old England-bred War Front gelding captured the 2023 Twilight Derby (G2) and placed in multiple graded stakes at a mile or longer before a 10-month layoff following a sixth-place finish in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) last May. He’s a proven stalker who will need to prove fitness, sprint sharpness, and downhill aptitude in his first try at this trip and surface, but the connections and pedigree give him big upside. Hector Barrios will be in the irons.

Gran Oriente (9-2), a Chile-bred son of Classic Empire now trained by Marcelo Polanco, earned a Group 1 win back in his homeland at longer distances and has adapted quickly in the U.S. with a recent hillside allowance score featuring a strong late kick after a poor showing in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and then a poor effort in a 1-mile turf allowance. The 5-year-old owns a closing style that could play well if the pace heats up, though the sharp sprint is still a big question.

Quereme Pass (8-1) rounds out the field, and the 5-year-old Argentina-bred son of Distinctive Passion will be making his first start in California after spending the last 10 months in Florida in claiming and allowance company with one stop in Kentucky. He adds an unknown element stepping up in class, and his running style appears forward but unproven over the tricky downhill turf.

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The Picks 1 Sumter 2 Genius Jimmy 3 Sorrento Sky

The Field for the $100,000 San Simeon Stakes (G3), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

PostHorseJockeyTrainerOdds
1SumterM E SmithR E Mandella5/2
2Quereme PassE JaramilloJ F D'Angelo8/1
3Genius JimmyJ J HernandezM W McCarthy3/1
4Gran OrienteA AyusoM Polanco9/2
5Seal TeamH I BerriosR E Mandella4/1
6Sorrento SkyF GerouxP D'Amato3/1

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