The road to the legendary blanket of roses is rarely a straight line. As of January 5th, the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" has officially transitioned into its most volatile chapter. The shift from the juvenile circuit to the three-year-old campaign has arrived, bringing higher stakes and larger point rewards that are quickly separating the genuine contenders from the also-rans.
This rigorous qualifying system is designed to ensure that only the most battle-tested athletes secure a spot in the starting gate. Following the final Grade 1 events of the previous year and the initial contests of the new season, we are seeing a dramatic reshuffling of the hierarchy.
Maintaining his position at the top of the mountain is Ted Noffey, the star pupil of the Todd A. Pletcher stable. With a solid 40 points and earnings exceeding $1.6 million, the son of Into Mischief remains the standard-bearer for this crop. His dominance in late-season juvenile stakes demonstrated why Pletcher’s calculated approach (focusing on high-value qualifying events) continues to be the blueprint for Kentucky Derby success.
Though Noffey has been freshening up for a heavy winter campaign, his rivals are left crunching numbers to see how they might close the gap on the current leader.
The leaderboard has seen a significant shakeup behind the frontrunner. Litmus Test, a Bob Baffert trainee by Nyquist, has secured the second position with 19 points. His consistent performances have pushed his career earnings over the $300,000 mark, making him the primary challenger from the West Coast.
Close on his heels is Mr. A. P., conditioned by Vladimir Cerin. The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah currently sits with 15 points and $340,000 in earnings, proving that he possesses the pedigree and the talent to be a factor when the distances stretch out this spring.
The race for the remaining top spots is exceptionally tight. Intrepido (Jeff Mullins) and Universe (Kenny McPeek) are currently deadlocked with 13 points each. While Intrepido holds the tiebreaker in earnings ($240,000), Universe, a son of Global Campaign, continues to look like a "dark horse" capable of a breakout performance in the upcoming 50-point races.
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Noffey | Todd A. Pletcher | 40 |
| 2 | Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | 20 |
| 3 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 19 |
| 4 | Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 15 |
| 5 | Chip Honcho | Steven M. Asmussen | 14 |
| 6 | Universe | Kenneth G. McPeek | 13 |
| 7 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 13 |
| 8 | Spice Runner | Steven M. Asmussen | 11 |
| 9 | Paladin | Chad C. Brown | 10 |
| 10 | Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 10 |
| 12 | Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 10 |
| 13 | Express Kid | Wade Rarick | 10 |
| 14 | My World | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 15 | Strategic Risk | Mark E. Casse | 10 |
| 16 | Mesquite | Cherie DeVaux | 10 |
| 17 | Brant | Bob Baffert | 9 |
| 18 | Balboa | Brittany T. Russell | 9 |
| 19 | Very Connected | Kenneth G. McPeek | 6 |
| 20 | Carson Street | Brendan P. Walsh | 6 |
Last Updated on 01/21/2026
The era of "incremental gains" is ending; we are now entering the "all-in" phase of the season. With the massive 50 and 100-point races scheduled for February and March, the heat is on for the horses sitting at the bottom of the Top 20, such as Blackout Time and Desert Gate.
For these lower-tier runners, the upcoming two-turn tests are "make or break." There is no longer any room for error in the mile-and-a-sixteenth events that serve as the true litmus test for Kentucky Derby stamina.
The current standings reveal a distinct divide in philosophy. Pletcher is playing from a position of absolute strength, while the Brad Cox barn is looming large with multiple entries like Further Ado and My World sitting just outside the top five. Meanwhile, Kenny McPeek remains highly active, keeping three different charges (Universe, Very Connected, and Blackout Time) in the qualifying hunt.
While the 150-200 point range is the ultimate goal for safety, every point earned in January acts as an insurance policy against the chaos of the spring.
The January 5th leaderboard is a snapshot of a high-speed pursuit. As the point values begin to multiply, a single win in a major test like the Holy Bull Stakes or the Risen Star Stakes can turn the standings upside down.
Keep it locked to US Racing for live updates, workout reports, and expert handicapping. As the distances stretch out, the real champions are beginning to show their colors.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
