Cigar Mile Odds, Betting, Analysis, Picks, Post Positions

Cigar Mile Odds, Betting, Analysis, Picks, Post Positions

Aqueduct has a terrific card planned for Saturday, if all goes as scheduled. That might be a big “if.”

The program features three Grade 2 Stakes: the $500,000 Cigar Mile, along with a pair of $250,000 races for 2-year-olds: the Remsen Stakes and the Demoiselle for fillies.

The “if” referred to earlier is the current dispute between the riders and track management. It flared last Sunday when the Aqueduct jockeys refused to ride after the first race, wiping out the rest of the card.

We are not taking sides in the conflict. The ones we side with are the usual innocent victims of these battles: the horseplayers.

We all invest considerable time and money in handicapping races. The last thing we want to hear is that it was all for nothing.

Here’s hoping the two sides reach an accommodation and the show goes on. It should be a good one, and let’s now take an in-depth look at the Cigar Mile.

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Betting Favorite is Phileas Fogg at 3-1

The discussion starts with that infamous bad boy, Phileas Fogg.

The 5-year-old has had an exceptional career, winning almost $800,000, including a narrow victory in the Suburban Stakes (G2) on July 4.

Like Bill Buckner, who will always be remembered for the ball that rolled between his legs in the 1986 World Series, Phileas Fogg had his moment of infamy in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last August at Saratoga.

Blasting away from the gate, Phileas Fogg and jockey Kendrick Carmouche veered inwards onto rivals shortly after the start, knocking Irad Ortiz, Jr. off Mindframe.

In the chaotic aftermath, Phileas Fogg was disqualified from third to seventh, Carmouche ultimately received a five-day suspension, and Ortiz went to the hospital, where no serious injuries were detected.

Mindframe also escaped injury, completing a riderless circuit of the track before the outriders caught him.

That was some wild start.

The Fogg has had one start since then, finishing second in the three-horse Woodward Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct as the 9-10 favorite.

Speed is his best weapon, and he’s used it to compile a record of 3-2-0 in five starts at the Big A.

Joel Rosario replaces Carmouche, and trainer Gustavo Rodriguez will add blinkers, an unusual move for a proven speed horse.

Trainers usually employ the hood to coax more early speed from a horse. That has never been a problem for Phileas Fogg.

It’s been eight races since he ran in a race as short as a mile.

“I think he’ll be OK with the cutback,” Rodriguez said. “A mile-and-an-eighth or a mile-and-a-quarter is better for him, but it is what it is.”

Bishops Bay loves the Distance

In contrast, Bishops Bay loves a mile. He is 3-for-3 at the distance, and the track configuration doesn’t bother him.

He owns a pair of one-turn mile stakes victories at Aqueduct in the Westchester (G3) and Forty Niner (G3).

Over the summer, he shipped down to Monmouth Park to win the Salvator Mile (G3) around two turns.

Like Phileas Fogg, Bishops Bay will be forwardly placed with Flavien Prat on board for trainer Brad Cox, who has been tearing up at the Big A with six wins from only 18 starters.

The Cigar Mile is the 5-year-old stallion’s chance to make an immediate positive impression on his new connections.

He was a $1.3 million sales topper in mid-November at the Keeneland Horses of Racing Age Sale.  He will debut in the colors of the Saudi-based KAS Stables.

“It’s nice that these owners stepped up and bought him for big money and kept him with us,” Cox said. “Hopefully, we can do some good for them, and we’re looking forward to Saturday.”

We’ll round out our top three with the always game Doc Sullivan, the New York-bred who drew the rail. He is stepping up to open company following a sharp 5 1/2 length score in the slop over state-breds in the New York Stallion Stakes here last month.

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The Picks: 1 Bishops Bay, 2 Doc Sullivan, 3 Phileas Fogg

The Field for the $600,000 Cigar Mile (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Doc Sullivan (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Jose Ortiz), 5-1
  2. Mika (Manny Franco, Mike Maker), 12-1
  3. Pentathlon (Junior Alvarado, Shug McGaughey), 10-1
  4. Crazy Mason (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Greg Sacco), 7-2
  5. Brazenly (John Velazquez, Chris Englehart), 30-1
  6. Phileas Fogg (Joel Rosario, Gustavo Rodriguez), 9-5
  7. Bishops Bay (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 3-1
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