December marks the essential transition point on the Kentucky Derby prep races schedule, shifting the competition from juvenile sprints to serious two-turn tests. These four races, the Remsen Stakes, Los Alamitos Futurity, Gun Runner Stakes, and Springboard Mile, offer the first major allocation of 10-4-3-2-1 qualifying points, instantly impacting the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Horseplayers recognize this month as the moment unproven talent either confirms classic aspirations or fades into obscurity. We closely examine the fields for these pivotal events, giving you the sharpest insight into which two-year-olds possess the necessary pedigree, speed, and stamina to warrant serious consideration for the First Saturday in May 2026. This crucial analysis helps you identify the next potential superstar before their Kentucky Derby Odds shorten.
The Grade 2 Remsen Stakes presents one of the most demanding tests for two-year-olds in North America, stretching horses 1 1/8 miles over the notoriously deep, demanding main track. This distance demands genuine endurance, immediately filtering out those who rely solely on superior speed.
Historically, the Remsen produces horses who thrive on distance, giving them a significant advantage when considering the Derby’s mile and a quarter commitment. We often see East Coast powerhouses like trainers Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown targeting this race with top-tier prospects who display both grit and pedigree. The Remsen Stakes, which will take place for the last time this December 6th at Aqueduct, is a crucial early marker for the 2026 Derby prep season.
With the Remsen Stakes being the first 1 1/8 mile test for many of these juveniles, the focus is purely on stamina and resolve. We scrutinize the horses who already earned solid speed figures running seven or eight furlongs, specifically looking for those who finished strongly, suggesting reserve stamina. The ability of a horse to handle the chilly, sometimes sloppy, weather conditions at Aqueduct provides a necessary early indicator of adaptability, a quality crucial for navigating the demanding Kentucky Derby trail. Handicappers must observe how a horse handles the traffic, dirt kickback, and late pressure inherent in this kind of large, championship field. Successfully navigating this test instantly elevates any winner into the realm of top Kentucky Derby contenders for the 2026 race.
The Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, run over 1 1/16 miles in Southern California, provides a slightly different, though equally important, angle on juvenile maturity. This race often serves as a key springboard for top graduates from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, with trainers like Bob Baffert historically dominating this local event.
The track configuration at Los Alamitos favors horses with tactical speed who can secure a forward position quickly, contrasting slightly with the grinding nature of the Remsen. Consequently, we must prioritize horses that couple brilliant early speed with proven ability to rate off the pace if necessary.
With Bob Baffert heavily targeting this race with potential contenders who are sons of champions, the competition for dominance on the West Coast is intense. Acknowledge, trained by Doug F. O'Neill, enters as the only "Probable" runner and is coming off an impressive maiden win, suggesting he has the tactical speed and fitness to challenge the Baffert arsenal. Success at Los Alamitos often confirms a horse's position among elite Kentucky Derby futures options, making this result one of the most anticipated of the year for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. The high ratings of the Baffert trio, including the Grade 1 placed Buetane (by Tiz the Law) and Desert Gate (by Omaha Beach), signal immense class, but their ability to handle the 1 1/16-mile distance will be key.
The Gun Runner Stakes, held at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, kicks off the vital Louisiana prep circuit, which consistently produces major Kentucky Derby threats, including the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner. This 1 1/16-mile race demands versatility, as the Fair Grounds surface is notoriously deep and tiring, requiring a horse that maintains a high cruising speed without burning its reserves too early. The field typically draws promising horses from Texas, Florida, and Kentucky who want to avoid the brutally cold weather in the Northeast or the deep competition in California.
With a small but select group of runners targeting the Gun Runner, the competition focuses on proven stamina and class. Two intriguing prospects head the official probable list.
Very Connected, representing the powerful Ken McPeek barn, brings the highest class figures, having finished fourth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. His ability to handle the 1 1/16-mile distance against top company makes him a major early player. The other leading contender, Mesquite, comes off a visually impressive maiden victory at Churchill Downs. Though his speed figure is lower, his status as "Probable" suggests strong intent from his connections (Cherie DeVaux) to secure early points. The winner of the Gun Runner not only earns valuable points but also establishes clear dominance on the Southern path, providing a strong signal about which Kentucky Derby contenders will mature best during the winter. This stakes race focuses on the ability to handle a sustained, grinding pace, a quality that translates directly to success in Louisville.
The Springboard Mile at Remington Park represents a unique opportunity, serving as the capstone for the Oklahoma racing calendar. While it is only a one-mile race, it attracts tough, gritty horses from the Midwest and Southwest circuits. Because the distance is slightly shorter than the other preps, speed figures often appear artificially elevated, so handicappers must adjust their expectations. The key factor here becomes tactical placement—a horse must secure position early, but retain enough burst to finish off the mile against hardened, determined competition.
We target horses that already demonstrated they can win going a mile, especially those who show composure under pressure, rather than horses making a debut around two turns. A horse like Plains Rider, who already dominated three state-bred stakes races, now steps into open company, offering a significant value proposition. His proven competitive nature and sharp turn of foot make him an attractive outsider who could steal the points and instantly insert himself into the larger conversation of Kentucky Derby contenders.
Winning the Springboard Mile requires maturity under fire, demanding that the jockey execute a flawless trip. This race gives horsemen a chance to bet on Kentucky Derby prospects that might have flown under the radar throughout the earlier, higher-profile races in New York and California.
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These four December events collectively award 40 total points, drastically changing the landscape of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard overnight. When a horse wins one of these 10-point races, they immediately cements a place inside the top 15 and begins forcing the hand of rivals who now need stronger results later in the year. This early assurance of points allows trainers to plan the rest of their colt's campaign with greater flexibility, focusing on specific targets rather than scrambling for points for the 2026 Derby.
We see the December winners as excellent early targets for placing Kentucky Derby futures wagers. Their two-turn success confirms the foundational stamina necessary for the Kentucky Derby. Analyzing performance, we look beyond the winner’s margin, focusing instead on the quality of their competition, the pace they set, and their closing fractions.
A horse that closes powerfully into a slow pace possesses less appeal than one that maintains a strong run through a blistering quarter-mile. This meticulous analysis allows us to separate genuine Derby threats from horses simply benefiting from weaker fields. Sharper insight into these results helps you secure the best Kentucky Derby betting value before the field solidifies in the spring.
The intensity of December’s stakes schedule forces trainers and owners to show their cards, delivering us the first earnest Kentucky Derby contenders of the 2026 class. You now possess the specialized insight to analyze the crucial variables: stamina, tactical speed, and trainer intent.
Don't simply wait until March to look at the Kentucky Derby Odds; the real value lies in acting now, before the winners of the Remsen, Los Alamitos Futurity, Gun Runner, and Springboard Mile become household names.
Bet on Kentucky Derby prospects today by signing up for your exclusive betting account and gaining access to continuous expert analysis, ensuring you lock in the best Kentucky Derby futures price before it disappears. The Road to the Kentucky Derby starts here, make your move and capitalize on the early opportunity.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
