Churchill Downs Picks and Odds for the Weekend

Rattle n Roll at the Clark Stakes

If you’re into history, Churchill Downs’ venerable Clark Stakes (G2) is for you. It was first run in 1875, the year the track opened, and the $600,000, 1 1/8-mile test for 3-year-olds and up will be run Friday for the 151st consecutive time. Talk about tradition.

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Rattle N Roll (post 6, 7-2) will try to become the first defending champion to repeat since Bob’s Dusty (1977, 1978). It won’t be easy, because the deep closer must defeat the favored Hit Show (post 3, 3-1), who finished ahead of Rattle N Roll in four of their five meetings.

Hit Show pulled off a 41-1 upset in this year’s $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1), defeating Forever Young, who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on Nov. 1. Hit Show also held off Rattle N Roll’s late surge by a length last month in the Fayette Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. But Rattle N Roll’s only win over Hit Show came in last year’s Clark, and jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. is upbeat about an encore by trainer Kenny McPeek’s 6-year-old.

“It almost seems like he’s made of iron. Every time you think we’ve gotten to the bottom of him, he just comes back for more,” Hernandez said. “He just trains better and keeps showing up.

“After that big race he had in the Fayette, he’s come back and had two tremendous works.”

Trainer Brad Cox saddles Hit Show and First Mission (post 2, 5-1), who lost six of his last seven starts. Cox is confident Hit Show can reverse last year’s Clark result and improve to 5-1 against Rattle N Roll.

“He’s a horse that’s been ultra consistent all year, always brings a big race,” Cox said. “We’ll need one from him, and I expect to get one from him.”

Another Clark contender is Gosger (post 4, 4-1), third as the 8-5 favorite in the Fayette. Trainer Brendan Walsh adds blinkers for a colt who’s lost four in a row in top company, including close seconds to Journalism in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Haskell Stakes (G1).

Hit Show and Rattle N Roll should get a solid pace provided by a combination of First Mission, Magnitude, Willy D’s, Cooke Creek, and Chunk of Gold. Hit Show should be able to get first run on Rattle N Roll and turn him back again.

The Picks: 1 Hit Show, 2 Rattle N Roll, 3 Gosger

The field for the $600,000 Clark Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Cooke Creek (Francisco Arrieta, Mike Maker), 12-1
  2. First Mission (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 5-1
  3. Hit Show (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Brad Cox), 3-1
  4. Gosger (Luis Saez, Brendan Walsh), 4-1
  5. Chunk of Gold (Junior Alvarado, Ethan West), 10-1
  6. Rattle N Roll (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Kenny McPeek), 7-2
  7. Who Dey (Luan Machado, Tom Drury, Jr.), 30-1
  8. Willy D's (Tyler Gaffalione, Mike Maker), 12-1
  9. Magnitude (Jose Ortiz, Steve Asmussen), 9-2

Mrs. Revere Stakes Odds, Analysis, Picks

Lush Lips, winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) last out, tops the co-feature, the $300,000 Mrs. Revere Stakes (G2), which starts a daily double with the Clark. She’s turned into a standout for Walsh after starting her career with three losses, the first two in Ireland. The British-bred Lush Lips (post 1, 7-5) has three wins and two seconds in her last five races, all graded stakes.

The only graded-stakes winner on grass in the field of 12 going 1 1/16 miles is 7-for-9 on turf and probably will be odds-on. Tyler Gaffalione should be able to work out a good trip from the rail. Pretty Picture (post 10, 10-1) looks like a live longshot for turf masters Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. She closed strongly (11.20-second final furlong) off a slow pace when third in the Sands Point (G2) and should be primed for a big effort.

Post time for race 10 is 5:25 p.m. ET.

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The Picks: 1 Lush Lips, 2 Pretty Picture, 3 Classic Q

The field for the $300,000 Mrs. Revere Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Lush Lips (Tyler Gaffalione, Brendan Walsh), 7-5
  2. Fast Market (Sam Marin, John Terranova II), 10-1
  3. Table Flirt (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott), 15-1
  4. Classic Q (Jose Ortiz, Mark Casse), 3-1
  5. Sea To Sky (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Cherie DeVaux), 30-1
  6. Princess Attitude (Cristian Torres, Vicki Oliver, 30-1
  7. Bracelet (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Brad Cox), 10-1
  8. Somethinabouther (Axel Concepcion, Brendan Walsh), 8-1
  9. In the Stars (Luis Saez, Rusty Arnold II) 15-1
  10. Pretty Picture (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown), 10-1
  11. Caviar Breakfast (Emmanuel Esquivel, Kenny McPeek), 20-1
  12. J N J Heartandsoul (Danny Sheehy, Tom Molloy), 30-1
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