Among Saratoga’s many charms is the unveiling of so many promising young horses. There’s always a chance to see the next Kentucky Derby (G1) winner in a field of well-bred, expensive juveniles. Saturday’s Sanford Stakes (G3) is the Spa’s first added-money race featuring 2-year-old colts.
The 6-furlong Sanford is an intriguing handicapping puzzle, a seven-horse field in which two have run twice, four have raced once, and one is making its debut. Have fun with it, but if history is a guide, don’t expect to see a colt who will make a splash in next spring’s classics.
The last Sanford hero to win a Triple Crown event was Afleet Alex, who in 2005 swept the Preakness Stakes (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1) and would have taken the Derby if not for a bad trip. He was that rare superstar capable of excelling from 5½ furlongs to 1½ miles, and it’s highly unlikely we’ll see his equal at this Saratoga meet.
For those who bet on horse racing, here are a few observations about the Sanford and Saturday’s other Saratoga stakes, both on turf, the Kelso (G3) for older males and the Belmont Oaks (G1) for 3-year-old fillies.
Obliteration (7-5) may have a tactical edge because he stalked a hot pace in his debut before drawing off by 7½ lengths. He’s trained by Steve Asmussen, who oddly enough doesn’t have a Sanford trophy among his North American-record 10,571 victories. That streak could end here.
The son of hot sire Violence may face his most formidable rivals in Mark Casse’s uncoupled pair of Blinging It Back (6-5), who’s 0-for-2 (third, second), and Strategic Risk (9-2), an eight-length winner in his only start. I can see Obliteration tracking those two before overtaking them.
Intellect (3-1) chased the need-to-lead Donegal Momentum (5-2) last month in the mile Poker Stakes (G3) at Saratoga, and that could happen again. Surely that will be how the bettors see it, and they could be right. But I’m intrigued by a colt who will be overlooked.
I rarely play horses who are 1-for-14 on grass, but I’m willing to make an exception for trainer Wesley Ward’s Mountain Bear (6-1), who has by far the best class lines in the field. The former Aidan O’Brien colt is 0-for-8 since October 2023, mainly because of his standout competition – multiple-stakes winners Carl Spackler, Rosallion, Haatem, Diego Velazquez – not lack of talent. Mountain Bear was second (at odds of 22-1) in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and second or third in three other graded stakes.
He ran well in his 2025 debut, surging from seventh to second before flattening out to be runner-up to 8-for-19 Nantasket Beach (10-1), whom he faces again here. Mountain Bear had to come from post 11, a tough job going a mile on grass at Churchill.
Yes, I’m making a lot of excuses for Mountain Bear, but I’m willing to play him across the board at generous odds and box him in exactas with favorites Donegal Momentum and Intellect. The price will be right.
For those who bet on horse racing ...
It’s tough to look beyond odds-on Nitrogen, who’s 5-for-5 this year, including three grass stakes, and she might be the best 3-year-old turf horse of either gender. She’s got devastating acceleration and looks close to a sure thing in this spot, although we know there is no such thing.
She’s 4-5, so forget a win bet and try to figure out who will complete the exacta. Opulent Restraint (10-1) looks like the main speed, so maybe she can hold on to be second after Nitrogen blasts past in mid-stretch.
