Post position rarely determines the outcome of a race. It’s critical, however, when going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park. Outside posts are at an extreme disadvantage because of the short sprint (about 40 yards) to the first turn. Horses hung wide on the speed-favoring track rarely make any impact.
Nine furlongs is the distance of Saturday’s $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1), in which posts 9 and outward are 1-for-30 in nine runnings. The brilliant outlier is Hall of Famer Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year, who scored from post 10 in his career finale in 2018.
Another Hall of Famer who overcame the far outside was Big Brown, who surged from post 12 to rule the 2008 Florida Derby (G1) by five lengths before dominating the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1). He was also a Horse of the Year.
Nobody in this Pegasus is remotely in the class of Gun Runner or Big Brown. It’s not a vintage renewal, with many entrants overmatched on paper, but it shapes up as a fun betting race.
Brad Cox trains two of the leading contenders -- Disco Time, the undefeated 8-5 favorite, and Tappan Street (6-1), the only horse to defeat Derby-Belmont Stakes (G1) hero Sovereignty last year. The 4-1 second choice is 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) champ White Abarrio, last year’s Pegasus winner, who’s 8-for-10 at Gulfstream. Three negatives for the big gray: a five-month layoff, three straight losses by a combined 17¼ lengths, and post 11.
Post time for the Pegasus World Cup is 5:39 p.m. ET and will be televised by NBC.
Rail draw should help the 5-for-5 colt who has won from far back, stalking, and wire-to-wire. Elite connections of Cox, Prat, and Juddmonte make him an intimidating favorite. Negative: It’s his first attempt at 9 furlongs.
Betting Verdict: Win contender
Turf specialist is 0-for-4 on dirt after a solid second last time in Grade 3. In over his head.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Ran fifth Nov. 1, trying to repeat as winner of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Has sharp tactical speed and ran second in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood Stakes (G1), so he classes up at the distance.
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
He’d fit better at a mile or shorter, but did win the 1 1/8-mile Charles Town Classic (G2) around three turns. Classy gelding rarely runs a bad one.
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
He’s a force in Grade 2 or Grade 3 stakes but 0-for-11 in Grade 1. Makes his fourth consecutive start in the Pegasus, in which he ran third last year. Not a leading contender, but could slip into the superfecta.
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
Ran a decent fourth behind Tappan Street in last year’s Florida Derby (G1), where he faded in mid-stretch. He’s the backup for Baffert, who wanted to run Goal Oriented but had to retire him. A likely pacesetter would prefer less distance (second or fourth beyond a mile).
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
He’s 3-for-4 at Gulfstream, the only place he’s ever raced, including the Florida Derby upset of Sovereignty and a solid second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) in his second start. Classy, handles the distance; big-time threat.
Betting Verdict: Win contender
He’s 1-for-4 (won on turf) since taking the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes (G2) to be 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old. Should win other races, but not this one.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Pace factor is 5-for-7 in the money but won only once. Just missed at 20-1 odds in the 7-furlong H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1), so shorter would be better. Second or third in the last four stakes, so he might hit the board with a good trip.
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
Speed horse almost stole the Cigar Mile (G1) last time out in graded-stakes debut. Could be in the mix early, then fade.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Defending Pegasus champ was a world beater in 2023 when he swept the Whitney Stakes (G1) and the BC Classic (G1), but his glory days appear to be behind him. Layoff, three-race slump, and post 11 say his dominance at Gulfstream is over.
Betting Verdict: Toss
New owners paid $550,000 so they could run him in this race. Deep closer takes a massive class jump, but if the pace is hot, he could inflate the superfecta by passing tired horses.
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
Never run 9 furlongs or run in a Grade 1. No chance if he scratches in.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Lost five in a row (beaten 33 lengths in last three) and winless since June. Belongs in a handicap or a $25,000 claimer.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
