2021 Kentucky Derby Forecast
This year, for the Covid-19 Delayed Kentucky Derby, the weather in Louisville is expected to be warm and beautiful with highs in the lower 80s, the nice day coming after several days of rain in the area. But a fast track lately for Kentucky Derby Day has been almost a rarity.
Kentucky Derby Track Conditions
Horse at Churchill Downs – Courtesy of Churchill Downs/Coady Photography.
A year ago, Maximum Security and Country House won over a track labeled “sloppy”, as did Triple Crown winner Justify in 2008. Other runners to have won on a main track labeled sloppy are Orb (2013), Super Saver (2010), Mine That Bird (2009), Smarty Jones (2004), Go For Gin (2004), Citation (1948) and Flying Ebony in 1925.
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In 2017, Always Dreaming won over a track labeled “wet fast.”
Unbridled in 1990 was the last Kentucky Derby winner to capture the race over a “good” main track and joined Dust Commander (1970), Carry Back (1961), Venetian Way (1960), Pensive (1944), Omaha (1935), Brokers Tip (1933), Gallant Fox (1930), Plaudit (1898), Joe Cotton (1885) and Buchanan (1884).
Dual classic winner Sunday Silence won the first jewel of the Triple Crown over a “muddy” track, as did Tim Tam (1958), Hoop Jr. (1945), Clyde Van Dusen (1929), Exterminator (1918), Worth (1912) and Riley (1890).
Churchill Downs Track Condition
The track condition label “slow” isn’t used anymore and to prove it, the last time a horse won the Derby over a “slow” surface was in 1947 when Jet Pilot won. Other winners on a “slow” track were Assault (1946), Whiskery (1927), Paul Jones (1920) and Wintergreen (1909).
“Heavy” is also not an often-used track condition, but in 1928 Reigh Count won on a “heavy” main track, as did Stone Street (1908), Pink Star (1907), Agile (1905), Typhoon II (1897), Azra (1892) and Leonatus (1883). One nobody still alive to remembers is a “dusty” track condition and three horses a very long time ago won on a “dusty” track – Ben Brush (1896), Fonso (1880), Day Star (1878).
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Kentucky Derby 2021 Odds:
| 1 | Known Agenda | 6-1 | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz | St. Elias Stable |
| 2 | Like the King | 50-1 | Wesley Ward | Drayden Van Dyke | M Racing Group, LLC |
| 3 | Brooklyn Strong | 50-1 | Daniel Velazquez | Umberto Rispoli | Mark Schwartz |
| 4 | Keepmeinmind | 50-1 | Robertino Diodoro | David Cohen | Cypress Creek LLC and Bennewith, Arnold |
| 5 | Sainthood | 50-1 | Todd Pletcher | Corey Lanerie | CHC, Inc. and WinStar Farm LLC |
| 6 | O Besos | 20-1 | Gregory D. Foley | Marc Pedroza | Bernard, L Barret, Tagg Team Racing and West Point Thoroughbreds |
| 7 | Mandaloun | 15-1 | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | Juddmonte Farms, Inc. |
| 8 | Medina Spirit | 15-1 | Bob Baffert | John Velazquez | Zedan Racing Stables Inc |
| 9 | Hot Rod Charlie | 8-1 | Doug O’Neill | Flavien Prat | Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, LLC and Strauss Bros Racing |
| 10 | Midnight Bourbon | 20-1 | Steve Asmussen | Mike Smith | Winchell Thoroughbreds |
| 11 | Dynamic One | 20-1 | Todd Pletcher | Jose Ortiz | Repole Stable, Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable |
| 12 | Helium | 50-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux | D. J. Stable LLC |
| 13 | Hidden Stash | 50-1 | Victoria H. Oliver | Rafael Bejarano | BBN Racing, LLC |
| 14 | Essential Quality | 2-1 | Brad Cox | Luis Saez | Godolphin, LLC |
| 15 | Rock Your World | 5-1 | John W. Sadler | Joel Rosario | Hronis Racing LLC and Talla Racing LLC |
| 16 | King Fury | 20-1 | Kenneth McPeek | Benjamin Hernandez | Fern Circle Stables and Three Chimneys Farm, LLC |
| 17 | Highly Motivated | 10-1 | Chad Brown | Javier Castellano | Klaravich Sables, Inc. |
| 18 | Super Stock | 30-1 | Steve Asmussen | Ricardo Santana Jr. | Woolsey, Erv and Asmussen, Keith |
| 19 | Soup and Sandwich | 30-1 | Mark Casse | Tyler Gaffalione | Live Oak Plantation |
| 20 | Bourbonic | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher | Kendrick Carmouche | Calumet Farm |
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Miriam Lee has always been a horse racing fan thanks to trips to the tracks in her home state of Maryland with her father as kid. She owns an OTTB and is an advocate for promoting the sport among her peers. Miriam studies communication arts at Hood College and will receive her master’s degree in 2021, which she plans to use for a career in screenwriting. Her all-time favorite racehorse is Man O War.
