By "The Professor", USRacing Handicapper
In the weeks leading up to the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 3, the USRacing handicappers will lay out $100 worth of betting options on selected races.
It is the most intriguing colt in the race and has the most significant upside. He makes his stakes debut here for Todd Pletcher following a pair of dazzling victories, both at Gulfstream by a combined 11¼ lengths.
This will be a class test as he takes on more experienced rivals. His speed figures suggest he can handle the hike, and his front-running style plays well at the 1 1/16-mile distance at Gulfstream. It’s a short run to the first turn, and they end at the sixteenth pole, the first finish line on the main track. Establishing a good early position shouldn’t be a problem with a clean break.
The still developing colt will again benefit from having Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez aboard.
Continues his journey toward the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29. He has been far more tactical since arriving in Florida, with the addition of blinkers. He rallied from far back to get a second and third in his first two starts in Kentucky for trainer Ian Wilkes. He has won both Gulfstream races, including the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) by racing on or near the pace.
Jockey Edgard Zayas, a journeyman mainstay at Gulfstream, figures to employ the same tactics to keep Burnham Square in reasonable proximity to River Thames.
Benefits most from the draw as the deep closer landed an inside slot and won’t get fanned wide in the short run to the first turn. Look for him to come rolling in the stretch if jockey Junior Alvarado can work out a trip with the winner of the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs last October.
Is the other Pletcher entry. His ability to handle the distance is in question. On the plus side, he drew the rail and won his only primary track try, the Swale Stakes here last month. Dylan Davis has the return call following that victory.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
