Part of the Kentucky Derby’s mystique is that it’s a race in which almost anything can happen and often does. A run of six consecutive winning favorites from 2013-18 (Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, Justify) defied that notion. Then chaos reasserted itself big-time in the past five runnings.
A parade of five longshots began in 2019, when 65-1 Country House was awarded the win after favored Maximum Security was disqualified for interference. Then came 8-1 Authentic, 12-1 Medina Spirit, 80-1 Rich Strike and 15-1 Mage. (Medina Spirit was disqualified the following February for a drug violation, which didn’t affect bettors.)
Analyzing the Kentucky Derby Contenders
Will the 150th Kentucky Derby be a two-horse race between front-runner Fierceness and deep closer Sierra Leone? Will the favorites finish 1-2, or will the recent trend continue?
Logic takes you only so far in handicapping. Studying hard for the test doesn’t guarantee an ‘A’, but it never hurts. Here’s a horse-by-horse analysis that might help steer you in the right direction.
HORSE-BY-HORSE ANALYSIS
1. DORNOCH (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez), 20-1
No Kentucky Derby winner left from post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986, and it’s the worst possible spot for a speed type. Dornoch needs the lead and will have to blast out of the gate in a field with many front-runners. If he doesn’t, he could get buried down inside, and even if he breaks well, he may not get to the front. A likely pace casualty.
Betting verdict: No chance
2. SIERRA LEONE (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione), 3-1
This deep closer is a nose away from being 4-for-4. Post 2 will let Gaffalione save ground behind a likely quick pace, which should aid Sierra Leone’s late move. Two caveats: Weaving through 19 opponents invites traffic trouble, and will he repeat his gate antics before the Blue Grass? If he keeps his cool and gets a trouble-free trip, he has a great chance to win, but those are big ifs.
Betting verdict: Serious win contender
3. MYSTIK DAN (Ken McPeek, Brian Hernandez, Jr.), 20-1
His best race was a perfect rail trip in the muddy, 1 1/16-mile Southwest. Otherwise, his early- and late-pace figures don’t measure up, and there are stamina concerns. Would move up on a wet track but not enough to matter.
Betting verdict: No chance
4. CATCHING FREEDOM (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat), 8-1
A last-to-first burst in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby made him third choice, at a juicy 8-1, behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone. His only bad race was a bad-trip fourth in his second start. Prat was in the money in five of six Kentucky Derby rides, so no worries there, and workouts say his colt is peaking. Needs a smooth trip, but if the top two don’t fire, Catching Freedom could wear the roses.
Betting verdict: Serious win contender
Catalytic
5. CATALYTIC (Saffie Joseph, Jr., Jose Ortiz), 30-1
Yes, he ran second to Fierceness in a weak Florida Derby, but he was 13 lengths behind, and somebody had to complete the exacta. That was his first two-turn try in three career races, with his only win in a sprint. He’s a vanity entry in way over his head.
Betting verdict: No chance
6. JUST STEEL (D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen), 20-1
Great storyline of 88-year-old Lukas teaming with Derby rookie Asmussen, son of another Hall of Fame trainer. Second at 32-1 odds to star Muth last out in the Arkansas Derby, his highlight in a graded stakes (0-for-5, beaten by 43¾ lengths). Nice stamina pedigree, but best-case scenario is plodding up for fourth to inflate the superfecta.
Betting verdict: Won’t be in the money
7. HONOR MARIE (Whit Beckman, Ben Curtis), 20-1
If you like Catching Freedom, why not consider a colt who was only a length behind him in the Louisiana Derby? Lots to like about Honor Marie: strong stamina bloodlines, two wins at Churchill Downs, brilliant 5-furlong work (:59 1/5) there April 25. Trainer and jockey are Derby first-timers, but Beckman was there with Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, and Irishman Curtis was sixth last year in the UK standings.
Betting verdict: He’s an overlay at 20-1, so play him across the board and box in exactas with Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Just a Touch
8. JUST A TOUCH (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux), 10-1
Inexperienced (three races) but gifted colt looked like the Blue Grass winner before Sierra Leone surged. His debut around two turns and on a fast track was impressive. Stalked hot pace, understandably tired late and should improve off it. Should stay 1¼ miles (by Justify out of a Tapit mare) and be in the mix at midstretch.
Betting verdict: Live longshot belongs on your tickets
9. ENCINO (Brad Cox, Axel Concepcion), 20-1
Scratched
T O Password
10. T O PASSWORD (Daisuke Takayanagi, Tomoya Ozasa), 30-1
Earned an invitation by earning the most points on the Japan Road to the Derby. Front-runner is 2-for-2 in ungraded stakes and makes a quantum leap in class 12 time zones from home. Will wilt early against better speed horses and backtrack.
Betting verdict: No chance
11. FOREVER YOUNG (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai), 10-1
Red flag: UAE Derby alumni are 0-for-19 in our Derby, with the best finish fifth, and superstars Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow ran last. Positive is: This 5-for-5 son of Real Steel looks like the real deal, with 1¼ miles seemingly in his wheelhouse. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi has two Breeders’ Cup races among many international victories. Feels like the toughest read in the field.
Betting verdict: Make a small win bet so you don’t beat yourself up if Forever Young makes history for Japan
12. TRACK PHANTOM (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario), 20-1
Asmussen, winningest trainer in North American history, is a record 0-for-25 in the Derby. He’ll chase his white whale with a colt who looks to have peaked during winter. Wired two stakes at Fair Grounds and just missed in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. Set slow fractions in his last three and won’t get away with that Saturday.
Betting verdict: Avoid this likely pace casualty
13. WEST SARATOGA (Larry Demeritte, Jesus Castanon), 50-1
He’s 0-for-3 in graded stakes, beaten by a combined 21½ lengths. The owner is taking a wild stab with an $11,000 yearling purchase who’s already a big success with earnings of $460,140. Trainer Demeritte, a native of the Bahamas who has battled cancer since 1996, picked him out at a Keeneland sale. He deserves his Derby moment, but this colt is seriously overmatched.
Betting verdict: No chance
14. ENDLESSLY (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli), 30-1
The Kentucky Derby is a tough spot for a main-track debut. McCarthy hoped to run Endlessly (3-for-4 on grass, 2-for-2 on synthetic) on the undercard in the American Turf, where he might have been favored, but co-owner John Amerman overruled him. That’s understandable because the longtime owner/breeder is 92 and never had a Kentucky Derby runner. Emotional move won’t work out, but this versatile colt will win other stakes.
Betting verdict: Wrong race, wrong surface, no play
15. DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, Jr.), 30-1
Brown (0-for-7 in the Derby) admits trying to win it off an eight-week layoff isn’t the ideal strategy. This colt got in by making a wild late run to take a very weak Tampa Bay Derby. Speed figures are unimpressive, but his price may drop because of name recognition for future Hall of Famers Brown and Ortiz, the country’s leading rider.
Betting verdict: Can’t see him making any impact. Toss him
16. GRAND MO THE FIRST (Victor Barboza, Jr., Emisael Jaramillo), 50-1
Like Catalytic and West Saratoga, he doesn’t belong with the top 3-year-olds. He’s 0-for-3 on dirt, all third-place finishes, but qualified for the Derby by finishing 16 lengths behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby.
Betting verdict: Don’t waste your money
17. FIERCENESS (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez), 5-2
World-class in-and-outer has alternated romps with duds in five career races. Last time he crushed the Florida Derby by 13 lengths, but will he regress again? Recent excellent workouts say he won’t. The deserving favorite got lucky by not drawing inside, which would have forced Velazquez to gun for the early lead. Expect the three-time Derby hero (four if you count Medina Spirit’s medication DQ) to stalk a quick pace and move on the far turn. Key concern: Breaking badly (Fierceness did that twice).
Betting verdict: Leave the most likely winner off your tickets only if you like living dangerously
18. STRONGHOLD (Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu), 20-1
It’s hard to remember the last time a Santa Anita Derby winner got so little respect. The West Coast’s only representative in Louisville gamely edged Bob Baffert third-stringer Imagination at The Great Race Place in a career-best effort. The 13-second final furlong was unimpressive, though, and post 18 won’t help this stalker. Hard to envision another career top.
Betting verdict: Can’t recommend
19. RESILIENCE (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado), 20-1
Son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief didn’t beat much in the Wood but did it the right way, sitting third before drawing away. Plus: He ran personal-best numbers for early and late pace and final time. Negatives: No horse has hit the Wood-Derby double since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and post 19 could leave this stalker very wide into the first turn.
Betting verdict: Faces tough trip, so stay away
Epic Ride
20. SOCIETY MAN (Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori), 50-1
Dettori is one of the best riders of all time, but as three-time Derby hero Kent Desormeaux likes to say, “It’s horse racing, not jockey racing.” Dettori, 53, left Europe after last season hoping to add a Derby victory to his historic resume. He landed on a longshot who’s 0-for-4 beyond a mile. Ran second for Luis Rivera at 106-1 odds in the weak Wood despite a wide trip, but he doesn’t fit in a classic.
Betting verdict: For Dettori fans only
ALSO-ELIGIBLES
21. EPIC RIDE (John Ennis, Adam Beschizza), 50-1
Was a creditable third behind Sierra Leone and Just a Touch in the Blue Grass while showing decent speed in his first dirt try. Will run if there’s a defection, and two-time stakes winner at synthetic Turfway Park would fit better than some of those who qualified. Still wouldn’t be a factor, though.
Betting verdict: No play
22. MUGATU (Jeff Engler, Joe Talamo), 50-1
Root hard that he won’t draw in. He’s 1-for-12, on a seven-race losing streak since breaking his maiden in November on Gulfstream’s artificial surface. He’s 0-for-3 on fast tracks, and his career highlight is a surprising fifth at odds of 181-1 (not a typo) in the Blue Grass.
Betting verdict: Don’t even think about it
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
