The Fair Grounds‘ four-race prep series produced many Triple Crown contenders in recent years. The Lecomte Stakes (G3), its first graded event, will be run Saturday, and we’ll probably see a few in its field of 14 in the 3-year-old classics.
Mandaloun finished third in the 2021 Lecomte before running second to the subsequently disqualified Medina Spirit at Churchill Downs. Epicenter (2022) and Two Phil’s (2023) were second in the Lecomte and in the Run for the Roses. War of Will (2019) won the Lecomte and the Preakness. Maybe somebody in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte can duplicate what those horses did. You never can tell.
The Lecomte will award Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the first five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 sliding scale. For those who like to bet horse racing, here are a few handicapping insights.
$250,000 Lecomte, 1 1/16 miles, post time 6:30 p.m. ET
The field from the rail out, with trainer, jockey, and morning-line odds in parentheses:
1 INNOVATOR (D. Wayne Lukas, Jaime Torres, 10-1)
Lots of mixed signals. On paper he has the most speed, but there are other front-runners signed on and Innovator will have to gun from the rail. First time around two turns, but he pushed Bob Baffert’s rising star Barnes in that colt’s debut and missed by only a head.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
2 MAXIMUM PROMISE (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez, Jr., 10-1)
Hasn’t run since August, when he aired by 14 lengths going a mile at Ellis Park. McPeek loves taking a shot, but going 1 1/16 miles off a five-month break is a big ask.
Betting verdict: Toss
3 ADMIRAL DENNIS (Brad Cox, Joel Rosario, 8-1)
Lost all chance in Gun Runner Stakes when he stumbled at the start and ran a distant fourth at 4-5 odds behind Lecomte favorite Built. Worth giving him a second chance.
Betting verdict: Contender
4 MAGNITUDE (Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz, 6-1)
Runner-up in Gun Runner after fading while pressing wire-to-wire runaway winner Built. Three best races were on or near the lead, but he’s not that fast early. Prefer others.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
5 OPTICAL (Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 20-1)
Pulled up in only two-turn try on dirt when overmatched in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity (G1). He’s another speed type who lacks serious early zip.
Betting verdict: Toss
6 GOLDEN AFTERNOON (Nick Vaccarezza, Axel Concepcion, 20-1)
Intriguing longshot makes main-track debut after going 2-for-3 on turf, including a second in a stakes. Pedigree says he’ll like the dirt, so not the worst stab at big odds.
Betting verdict: Contender
7 CALLING CARD (Mike Maker, Frankie Dettori, 12-1)
So-so third last time going two turns on dirt for the first time. His only win was a 17-length romp around one turn at Aqueduct. Outstanding connections but inclined to pass.
Betting verdict: Toss
8 TOUGH CATCH (Dallas Stewart, Luis Saez, 10-1)
Speedy colt makes two-turn debut after going 4-for-5 in the exacta in sprints. His only dud was a troubled eighth in the Grade 1 Hopeful in just his second start, so definitely excuses there. Won minor stakes stalking last out at Fair Grounds, so you know he likes the track.
Betting verdict: Win contender
9 DAPPER MOON (Dallas Stewart, Edgar Morales, 12-1)
Ran decent fourths in his three two-turn tries, all in graded stakes versus standouts such as East Avenue and First Resort. That experience gives him an edge over most of his Lecomte rivals.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
10 MOBETTERTHANGOOD (Kenny McPeek, Colby Hernandez, 20-1)
Only race was deep-closing win over 7 furlongs at Saratoga in September. McPeek throws him into the deep end after a long break. Too much, too soon.
Betting verdict: Toss
11 DISCO TIME (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 9-2)
He’s 2-for-2, winning by more than three lengths at 7 furlongs and a mile, and stretching out to 8½ furlongs shouldn’t be beyond him. Could be another of Cox’s many fine 3-year-olds.
Betting verdict: The pick
12 JOLLY SAMURAI (Danny Pish, Rene Diaz, 20-1)
Texas-bred was 3-for-3 until finishing fifth behind promising Coal Battle in Remington Park’s Springboard Mile. Closing style could work to his advantage here.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
13 BUILT (Wayne Catalano, Jareth Loveberry, 3-1)
Dominated his two-turn debut, leading throughout 6¾-length romp in Gun Runner. Finished strongly, and post 13 looks like his biggest hurdle. If you didn’t have him at 7-2 last time, think twice about taking a short price.
Betting verdict: Win contender
14 SEATTLE ROAD (Tom Amoss, Marcelino Pedroza Jr., 20-1)
Deep closer was second, first at 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds, but he’ll be up against it trying to weave through 13 opponents.
Betting verdict: Toss
The picks: 1 Disco Time 2 Tough Catch 3 Built
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
