Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) or Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), that was the question.
The answer came at the post-position draw on Monday: Knightsbridge was entered in the $7 million BC Classic, and Further Ado and Forged Steel were entered in the $1 million BC Dirt Mile at Keeneland on Saturday.
The trio was pre-entered for both races. When Knightsbridge was declared for the Classic to run with stablemate Sovereignty, the BC Dirt Mile became an intriguing alternative for the others.
The result is an 11-horse field with Further Ado as the 2-1 favorite against 2024 Dirt Mile winner Full Serrano, Japan invader Lord Fons and enough early speed to make the opening half-mile particularly interesting.
Post time for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile on Championships Saturday at the Breeders' Cup is 2:26 p.m. ET
Further Ado has plenty going for him. But a short price and the rail draw are hardly guarantees in a race that has produced only seven winning favorites in its 19-year history.
Trainer Brad Cox opted for the Dirt Mile for the son of Gun Runner who has done some of his best running at Keeneland. The colt is unbeaten in two starts over the Lexington track, including a spectacular 20-length maiden victory last fall and an 11-length romp in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in April.
He later finished second to The Puma in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) on Sept. 19, and the turnback from 1⅛ miles should suit him. Flavien Prat will ride.
Further Ado also enjoys a small but potentially significant advantage over his 10 rivals: As a 3-year-old facing older horses, he carries 123 pounds, three fewer than every other runner in the field. Three pounds may not sound like much. In a race where fractions of a second can separate the winner from the also-rans, however, every little bit helps.
The question is whether Prat can secure a favorable position from the rail without getting caught up in what promises to be a lively pace.
Full Serrano (10-1), winner of the 2024 Dirt Mile at Del Mar, returns for a third consecutive attempt at the race.
The Argentina-bred 7-year-old finished fifth in last year’s renewal, and although he has not won in three starts this season, his recent form is better than that statistic suggests.
In the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in August, he battled Knightsbridge for the early lead before weakening to third at 1¼ miles. The shorter distance Saturday should be much more to his liking.
Trainer John Sadler has enlisted Joel Rosario, who was aboard for Full Serrano’s 2024 victory. Rosario has won the Dirt Mile three times, more than any other jockey.
Full Serrano breaks from post 3, an advantageous position if Rosario can avoid becoming embroiled in an early speed duel.
There is no shortage of horses capable of showing early speed.
Iron Man Cal (12-1), winner of the Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2), drew the outside post 11. Owen Almighty (10-1), Forged Steel (15-1) and Full Serrano also figure prominently in the early pace picture.
Forged Steel comes off a victory in the Goodwood Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, a performance that earned him a berth in the Classic. His connections nevertheless chose the Dirt Mile, where they believe his chances are better.
Bracket Buster (7-2), the second choice on the morning line, and Coal Battle (6-1) add further depth to the field.
With so many runners possessing tactical speed, the jockeys may have as much to say about the outcome as the horses. An overly ambitious opening half-mile could set things up for a runner able to settle just behind the leaders and finish strongly.
Bill Mott, who won consecutive Dirt Miles with the remarkable Cody’s Wish in 2022 and 2023, sends out T Kraft (15-1).
The colt comes into the race off a victory in the 7-furlong Vosburgh Stakes (G3) and now faces the considerably different challenge of stretching out to a two-turn mile.
That raises an obvious question about stamina, but Mott’s record in this race makes T Kraft difficult to dismiss.
Junior Alvarado, who partnered with Cody’s Wish in both championship victories, rides from post 2.
At 15-1, T Kraft offers an intriguing alternative to the more obvious contenders, particularly if the pace develops in his favor.
Japan’s Lord Fons (15-1) adds an international dimension to the race. Trained by Shogo Yasuda and ridden by Kazuo Yokoyama, Lord Fons has established his credentials in Japan at 7 furlongs. Saturday’s race presents a new challenge: American dirt racing around two turns against Grade 1 competition.
The distance and configuration are legitimate questions, but Japanese runners have demonstrated repeatedly that they deserve serious consideration on the Breeders’ Cup stage.
Lord Fons drew post 6, giving Yokoyama options as the field sorts itself out heading into the first turn.
The picks: 1 Further Ado 2 Full Serrano 3 Bracket Buster
1 Further Ado (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 2-1
2 T Kraft (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott), 15-1
3 Full Serrano (Joel Rosario, John Sadler), 10-1
4 Chunk of Gold (Jaime Torres, Ethan West), 8-1
5 Coal Battle (Juan Vargas, Lonnie Briley), 6-1
6 Lord Fons (Kazuo Yokoyama, Shogo Yasuda), 15-1
7 Bracket Buster (John Velazquez, Vicki Oliver), 7-2
8 Moonlight (Manny Franco, Peter Miller), 15-1
9 Forged Steel (Edwin Gonzalez, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 15-1
10 Owen Almighty (Luis Saez, Brian Lynch), 10-1
11 Iron Man Cal (Tyler Gaffalione, Phil D'Amato), 12-1
Jenny Kellner is an award-winning journalist and teacher who has covered thoroughbred racing for years. As a reporter for both United Press International and The Associated Press, her work has appeared in publications and on websites around the world. Jenny has also written for The New York Times, the New York Post, Newsday and Sports Illustrated.
