This is American Promise's past performances, jockey, trainer, Preakness Stakes odds and full analysis heading into the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Yes, American Promise was a distant 16th in the Kentucky Derby, beaten by more than 38 lengths. But the raw result hides the context: he had real excuses. After a bump at the break, he was only a length off the lead after six furlongs before getting stuck behind traffic and fading late.
“It turned into a bit of a mess,” said jockey Nik Juarez. “Citizen Bull veered out from the rail and messed things up inside. I had to adapt the best I could.”
Now he gets a cleaner setup in the Preakness Stakes, which features a smaller and less intimidating field. With several Derby front-runners, such as East Avenue, Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, Owen Almighty, skipping the race, American Promise might end up controlling the pace, however the Preakness Stakes odds are not in his favor (15-1). But that’s exactly how Seize the Grey pulled off the upset for trainer D. Wayne Lukas last year.
“It unraveled right from the gate in the Derby,” Lukas said. “American Promise is a big-bodied horse. When he loses momentum, it’s tough to get him going again.”
Still, he never completely folded. There was some fight left in him after early trouble. “He gained a lot from the experience,” Juarez added.
That might be true. This son of Justify was making his first graded stakes appearance off a seven-week layoff. It was a big ask. But he’s already proven he can wire a field, having crushed the Virginia Derby on the front end. If he’s left alone early at Pimlico, he could take them all the way.
This is the kind of longshot worth a second look. The pace scenario sets up better, the competition’s lighter, and the price is right. Use underneath—or take a small stab at the upset.
Notes: Juarez is a local—born and raised in the Baltimore suburbs—and this will be his first mount in the Preakness. Lukas, now 89, made history last year as the oldest trainer to win the Preakness. If he does it again this year, it will be back-to-back wins—something no trainer has pulled off since Bob Baffert did it in 2001–02. Lukas also doubled up in 1994–95 with Tabasco Cat and Timber Country.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
