The forecast for Saturday, September 13, at Woodbine Racetrack calls for partly cloudy skies with a high of 79°F (26°C), a low chance of precipitation (10%), and a west wind at 7 mph. These conditions are ideal for a fast turf course, which will favor horses with a good turn of foot and those who can handle a quick pace.
The $500,000 Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes (G1) at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Canada, is one of the premier races for two-year-old fillies on the turf. The one-mile event serves as a Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" race, with the winner earning an automatic, fees-paid berth into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).
This year's edition has drawn a competitive field of ten fillies, including a strong international shipper and several talented local and American contenders. While the race offers many options for bettors, these three stand out as the top plays for 2025.
The one to beat is undoubtedly the Godolphin homebred, Dance To The Music. Trained by Charlie Appleby, who has won this race twice before, this filly is undefeated in her two starts in England. Her last race was a gutsy win in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket, a race that has been a springboard for previous Natalma winners from the Appleby barn.
While this will be her first time racing around a turn and on a tighter track, her connections have expressed confidence in her ability to adapt. With top-class jockey William Buick in the irons, Dance To The Music has the pedigree, form, and connections to dominate this field.
The biggest threat to the international favorite is the Chad Brown trainee, Deep Learning. This filly burst onto the scene with a powerful debut victory at Saratoga in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight. Her final quarter-mile time of :23.13 was a jaw-dropping display of speed and stamina, suggesting she is a filly with a massive late kick.
While she faces a step up in class, trainer Chad Brown is a master at preparing turf runners for graded stakes success. With Flavien Prat aboard, Deep Learning will likely settle off the pace and unleash a powerful run in the stretch. She has the raw talent to upset the favorite and stamp herself as a major player in the juvenile filly turf division.
Among the local contenders, Corsia Veloce has to be given serious consideration. The Josie Carroll trainee has proven her class at Woodbine, with her two career wins, including a victory in the Catch A Glimpse Stakes, which served as a key prep for this race. In that race, she defeated her main rivals, Sweet Fusion and Dyna, with a strong, stalking trip.
Her form is on a clear upward trajectory, and she has shown that she loves the Woodbine turf course. Drawing the rail, she should get a good trip under jockey Fraser Aebly and be in a prime position to strike in the late stages. At 8-1, she offers a great value for bettors who want to back a proven commodity over the course.
The 2025 Natalma Stakes shapes up as a captivating betting race. Dance To The Music is the formidable international shipper with a perfect record; Deep Learning is the promising American contender with an explosive late kick; and Corsia Veloce is the proven local champion who offers great value. Together, they form the three best bets for this year's Natalma, and all roads from Woodbine may very well lead to the Breeders’ Cup.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
