In the runup to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4, usracing.com continues with our weekly Derby Top 10 contenders.
Here come the 100-pointers!
The countdown to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) kicks into the stretch run beginning Saturday with the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) and the $700,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3).
For eight Derby preps over the next three weekends, Derby qualifying points max out at 100-50-25-15-10 to the top five finishers. Even at this late point – the Derby is May 4 — any 3-year-old with 0 points can earn a spot in the 20-horse Derby field with a victory or a runner-up finish.
And those already with 20 or more points, would likely qualify with a third-place finish.
Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10: Sierra Leone, Timberlake Remain 1-2
Last week was free of Derby preps so our usracing.com Derby Top 10 remains the same with Sierra Leone, Timberlake, and Dornoch 1-2-3.
Much will change when the top contenders race in one more prep against those making a last-ditch effort to get into the field that has a maximum field of 20.
The 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds features six 3-year-olds already with points, starting with our No. 5 contender Track Phantom (55 points; No. 5 on the Derby leaderboard).
Challengers include former Top 10 contenders Chasing Freedom (Smarty Jones winner), Honor Marie (Kentucky Jockey Club winner), Common Defense (2nd in the Rebel), Real Men Violin (2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club), and Agate Road (2nd Sam F. Davis; cross-entered in the Jeff Ruby). Track Phantom won the Gun Runner and the Lecomte and was second in the Risen Star.
In the Jeff Ruby Steaks at 1 1/8 miles, Endlessly is the likely favorite in what will be a full field of 12. Northern Flame, Otello, and West Saratoga are also entered.
Following these two preps, the next wave comes on March 30 with the Florida Derby (G1), the Arkansas Derby (G1), and the UAE Derby (G2). On April 6, it’s the Wood Memorial (G2), the Blue Grass (G1), and the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
The latest US Racing Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10
1. Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione)
Completed third work of 4 furlongs this month, going 48.60 at Payson Park on March 16 … Risen Star win is standout performance of all Derby contenders – so far … Son of Gun Runner has won 2-of-3 – ran second by a nose to Dornoch in Remsen.
Next start: Blue Grass, Keeneland, April 6.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (55)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 7-1
2. Timberlake (Brad Cox, Cristian Torres)
Son of Into Mischief worked 5 furlongs in 1:02.20 on March 15 at the Fair Grounds … Rebel winner one of several Derby prospects for Cox.
Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 30.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (66)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 12-1.
3. Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez)
Fountain of Youth winner biding time at Palm Meadow, working 4 furlongs in 48.96 on March, 54th of 92 at the same distance … Final prep remains likely for full brother of ‘23 Derby winner Mage … Winner of three straight after two runner-up finishes to start a career.
Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30, or Blue Grass, Keeneland, April 6.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 2 on Derby points leaderboard (60)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 13-1
4. Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez)
2-year-old champion worked 5 furlongs at Palm Beach Downs in 1:01.30 on March 15 with regular rider John Velazquez aboard … BC Juvenile winner ran third in Holy Bull on Feb. 3 … Pletcher: “It seems like he’s in really good form, so we’re expecting a good performance from him.”
Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 8 on Derby points leaderboard (36)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 9-1.
5. Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario)
Set to complete the four-race Fair Grounds road to the Derby after wins in the Gun Runner and Lecomte, and narrow loss to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star … Worked a solid 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 at the Fair Grounds on March 16 … If he can handle the distance, another 1/16th mile in the 1 ¼-mile Derby seems doable.
Next start: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, March 23.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 5 on Derby points leaderboard (55)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 23-1.
6. Deterministic (Christophe Clement, Joel Rosario)
No timed workout since Gotham win on March 2, but a workout looks this week at Payson Park … Longtime trainer Clement, best known as one of the top turf conditioners, hoping to compete in his first Derby … 2-for-2; a debut win on Aug. 12 at Saratoga followed by Gotham triumph nearly seven months later …
Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, April 6.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 6 on Derby points leaderboard (50)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 16-1.
7. Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione)
Son of Practical Joke gives Brown a legit contender as trainer seeks first Derby win … Won Tampa Bay Derby by narrow margin over No More Time …
Next start: Wood Memorial (G2), April 6.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 3 on Derby points leaderboard (60)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 31-1.
8. Hades (Joe Orseno, Paco Lopez)
Unbeaten (3-for-3) gelding set to take on Fierceness again, the 2-year-old champ he beat in the Holy Bull last month … Likely need to finish in top 3 of Florida Derby to get into the Kentucky Derby …
Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 16 on Derby points leaderboard (20)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 20-1.
9. Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai)
The horse to beat in the UAE Derby, which has a prospective field of xx … Saudi Cup winner is 4-for-4 after the perfectly timed rally for a head win over Book’em Danno … Zero Derby qualifying points, but ranks second on Japan road to Derby (20 points) so may get in that way if he faulters in UAE Derby.
Next start: UAE Derby, Meydan Racecourse, March 30 … Derby future wager odds: 12-1.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position:
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 12-1.
10. No More Time (Jose D’Angelo, Javier Castellano)
A Derby longshot for sure, and he’s likely to make the fields based on his runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby after a win in the Sam F. Davis … D’Angelo says bargain-basement $40,000 colt will train up to Derby.
Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 4.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 7 on Derby points leaderboard (45)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 144-1.
On the bubble: Agate Road, Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan
Note: With trainer Bob Baffert still banned by Churchill Downs Inc., none of his 3-year-olds can earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points, thus none are in our Derby Top 10. They include Imagination, Muth, and Nysos.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
