The Grade 1 First Lady Stakes (1 mile on turf, fillies & mares 3yo and up) carries an $800,000 purse and will run on October 4, 2025, at Keeneland.
With 16 entries drawn and the race offering “Win and You’re In” status for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, it’s a marquee spot for turf females in the fall.
This year’s field is wide, with multiple plausible paths to victory. But these three stand out as the best bets to win.
Choisya arrives as the logical favorite, and not just because odds tell her so. She’s already proven in a top company, and her form suggests she’s peaking in the fall.
Her recent victory in the Jenny Wiley (G1) lends strong support: a win there raises expectations that she can carry it into another high-class race. If she can sweep Jenny Wiley and First Lady in the same year, she’d join a select few.
Her running style fits the template. She can settle behind early speed and unleash in the stretch, a style rewarded on Keeneland’s turf mile. The Key will be a clean trip and avoiding trouble in traffic.
Potential red flags: she may prefer slightly firmer turf or a certain pace scenario (not too slow, not too fast). If the leaders slow it up, closer types could overrun her. But given her consistency and her trainer (Simon & Ed Crisford) + jockey (Frankie Dettori), she’s the horse to beat.
If you want tactical speed + class, Dynamic Pricing is a strong pick. Under Chad C. Brown, one of the all-time greats in turf training, especially with mares, she’s dangerous in any race where she can secure a good position. (Brown has more First Lady wins than most, but not necessarily with the same horse.)
Dynamic Pricing’s pattern suggests she can be forwardly placed without being forced. If the pace is honest up front, she could sit second or third, get a breather into the turn, and have something left for the stretch. She isn’t purely a grinder; she has tactical versatility.
Her main risk: she could get overrun by stronger closers if the pace collapses. Also, if she’s asked to lead early against serious speed, she might be vulnerable late. But in a race like this, she’s not a dark horse; she’s a well-lighted contender.
If you want to hedge your bet, use her in exactas or as a co-top pick alongside Choisya.
This is your value play, not hopeless, but under the radar. Also trained by Chad Brown, which gives a confidence boost (if Brown has success, you want some exposure). Brown has dominated the First Lady historically.
Segesta is less accomplished at the Grade 1 level, but she may benefit from the fact that she comes here without the absolute pressure of favorite status. If the pace becomes a soft war up front, she could sneak through in the lane.
Her game plan: stay within striking distance, keep clear of trouble, and pounce late. She’s more of a “figure it out in the stretch” type, so the timing will be critical.
What works against her: insufficient stamina, traffic issues, or getting squeezed if the race shape favors speed over deep closers. But at 5-1, the upside is large.
Expect early speed to be contested. Some fillies will try to press or set the pace. If that happens, the leaders may tire turning for home, opening the race for stalkers and closers (like Choisya or Segesta). If the pace collapses, tough to know which horse can survive.
Keeneland’s turf mile rewards horses with tactical flexibility and a strong late kick. Horses that are too one-dimensional or pushed too hard early risk getting overtaken. Also, turf condition (firm, good, yielding) may shift the playing field; some runners prefer firmer turf, others don’t.
Given the field of 16, position matters. Avoiding traffic, especially in the stretch, could decide between placing and winning.
The 2025 First Lady Stakes looks wide open, but you want your core in these three:
These three give you a balanced mix: favorite power, tactical threat, and value surprise. Use them in your win, exacta, and trifecta tickets.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
