Key takeaways:
The Grade 2, $200,000 Rodeo Drive Stakes is one of the crown jewels of Santa Anita Park’s fall turf lineup. Scheduled for Saturday, October 4, 2025, the 1 1/4-mile test for fillies and mares serves as a pivotal prep for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, making it a must-watch event for bettors and fans of the grass division.
This year’s lineup blends proven class with intriguing up-and-comers. Eight contenders have been entered, led by Amber Cascade (5-2), Long Ago (3-1), and Alpha Bella (4-1). Each brings a unique running style and set of credentials, setting the stage for a tactical battle over the expansive Santa Anita turf course.
The Rodeo Drive has long been a showcase for elite female turf runners. Past winners include Going to Vegas, Vasilika, and Etoile, all of whom used this race as a springboard to Breeders’ Cup success. With a mix of speed, stamina, and late-running talent, this edition promises another thrilling chapter in that legacy.
Here are the three best bets to win the 2025 Rodeo Drive Stakes.
Trainer: Michael J. Maker
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez
Amber Cascade stands out as the horse to beat, entering off a string of sharp performances that underline her versatility and consistency. The Maker-trained filly has thrived since stretching out in distance earlier this summer, showing both tactical speed and the ability to sustain her run late. Her most recent start saw her finish a close second in the John C. Mabee Stakes (G2), where she pressed the pace before being caught late by a narrow margin.
The key to Amber Cascade’s appeal lies in her adaptability. Santa Anita’s firm turf and sweeping turns reward horses who can stay in touch early and quicken when it counts, precisely her style. She’s not pace-dependent, meaning she can stalk or sit just behind the leaders, such as Speed Shopper or Hang the Moon, and then pounce as they tire turning for home.
Pedigree also supports her chances. By English Channel, she inherits the stamina to stay ten furlongs with ease, and her dam side provides a strong late kick typical of turf specialists. With top jockey Juan Hernandez aboard, a rider who knows Santa Anita better than anyone, she projects the cleanest trip of the field.
Amber Cascade’s main question isn’t her talent but her timing. She’s come up short in several photo finishes, often due to tricky pace setups. Still, against this group, she finds a manageable field and should finally race to showcase her best. Logical top pick and the most reliable play for win bettors and exotics.
Trainer: William E. Morey
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Long Ago might not have the flashiest record, but she’s built a solid résumé anchored by consistency and professionalism. A daughter of War Front, she has matured beautifully through the season, gradually extending her stamina with each start. Her most recent effort, a strong runner-up in the Del Mar Handicap (G2) against mixed company, suggested she’s ready to tackle elite female rivals again.
Her greatest weapon is her closing kick. Santa Anita’s long stretch has historically rewarded horses who can unleash a sustained rally, and that’s precisely Long Ago’s game. Mike Smith, who has partnered with her in each of her last three outings, has timed those runs with surgical precision, allowing her to relax early and explode late. Expect her to be sitting mid-pack, waiting for the leaders to blink.
Tactically, Long Ago benefits from the likely pace setup. With Speed Shopper and Hang the Moon expected to vie for early control, the fractions could be honest, setting the stage for a closer to capitalize. If the front-runners soften each other up, Long Ago’s endurance and experience could make the difference.
At 3-1, she offers slightly better value than the favorite while maintaining a high probability of hitting the board. For players building trifectas or multi-race sequences, she’s a must-use contender and a viable win alternative.
Trainer: John W. Sadler
Jockey: Hector I. Berrios
Every year, the Rodeo Drive produces a “sleeper” horse that sneaks under the radar but has the form and figures to spring an upset. In 2025, that horse could easily be Alpha Bella. The Sadler trainee has been quietly consistent all year, hitting the board in multiple graded events while facing some of the best turf mares on the West Coast.
Her tactical setup is fascinating. She’s not a pure closer like Long Ago, but she also doesn’t need to be on the lead. Instead, she prefers to sit two or three lengths off the early pace, saving ground before angling out in the lane. That balance could prove decisive if the pace turns moderate, something that occasionally happens at Santa Anita when front-runners get loose.
Alpha Bella’s previous outings show a mare who’s steadily improving. Her late-summer effort in the Yellow Ribbon Handicap (G2) was a clear step forward: she was caught wide throughout yet still finished gamely for third behind Neptune’s Beauty and Amber Cascade. With a better trip here and the extra furlong to work with, she’s poised to turn the tables.
Hector Berrios fits her perfectly. Known for his patient handling on turf, Berrios has become one of California’s most effective grass riders. Expect him to tuck Alpha Bella into a stalking position, conserve energy through the far turn, and launch a well-timed challenge late.
At 4-1, she’s the value play, a mare with proven form, improving figures, and the right connections to steal the spotlight if the favorites falter.
The 2025 Rodeo Drive Stakes sets up as a tactical chess match among three quality turf mares, each with distinct running styles. Early speed from Speed Shopper and Hang the Moon should ensure an honest pace, while Starry Heavens and Mission of Joy lurk just behind them. That dynamic plays beautifully into the hands of Amber Cascade, Long Ago, and Alpha Bella, the trio best equipped to strike when it matters.
Top pick: Amber Cascade (5-2) — tactical speed, ideal profile for Santa Anita, and ready for her breakthrough win.
Second choice: Long Ago (3-1) — powerful closer with Hall-of-Fame rider, perfect setup for a late surge.
Value play: Alpha Bella (4-1) — improving form, versatile style, and sneaky upside if the pace collapses.
Together, they form the most logical core for win bets, exactas, and trifectas. As a Breeders’ Cup prep, the Rodeo Drive is about more than one race; it’s a litmus test for who truly belongs among North America’s turf elite. By Saturday evening, we’ll know which mare earned her ticket to racing’s biggest stage.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
