Ever since I started compiling racing databases about 10 years ago, I’ve developed and produced a variety of racing reports — most for my own use, but some for public consumption. Among the latter was a Race Report Card, which I designed specifically for US Racing clients back on July 8, 2016.
The ironic thing is: I was never a big fan of it.
Don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t a bad report — the stats I had on it, which I documented at the time of the launch, were pretty good. But I’m a numbers guy and I didn’t care for the grades, even though I know most people prefer them to a bunch of digits. Worse, though, was the fact that the only horses even close to being profitable were those with a 4.00 grade point average (GPA) — which were, as one might guess, somewhat rare.
About a year later, however, I developed a concept that would ultimately turn the Race Report Card into something I am now quite proud of — even though I still dislike the grades. It was then that I came up with the idea of time-adjusted speed ratings, which I wrote about in a piece called A Speed Handicapping Method That Actually Works!
This accomplished two things:
- It worked better than my previous approach.
- It eliminated the need for a “Fitness” rating, which wasn’t that effective to begin with.
Take a look at the numbers on horses with the top GPA:
When coupled with a good Form Rating (three check marks or more), the digits get even better:
So, to celebrate these new and improved reports, here are some free plays for Friday and Saturday, along with a full report for Saturday’s big card at Fair Grounds, which includes the US Racing Race of the Week — the Risen Star Stakes:
Friday (2/16/18)
2nd Charles Town: 4-Ready Right Now (9/2 morning line odds).
8th Sam Houston: 1A-Smoking Romance (8/5).
4th Penn National: 2-Casigordo (3/1).
Saturday (2/17/18)
2nd Tampa Bay Downs: 8-Abie (5/1).
Fair Grounds Race Report Card
