Kentucky Derby Favorites
By US Racing Team
Favorites in the Kentucky Derby seem to do well. Since 1908 and the advent of pari-mutuel wagering, favorites have won 39 times for roughly a 35 percent strike rate. In the years before pari-mutuel wagering between 1875 and 1907, sentimental favorites won 16 times for a near 50 percent win rate.
Essential Quality at The Travers Stakes – Joe Labozzetta
The shortest-priced favorite in Derby history was Bimelech, who finished second a 2-5 in 1940. Count Fleet (1943) and Citation (1948), who was coupled with stablemate Coaltown, were also 2-5 when they won the first jewel under the Twin Spires. Seattle Slew was 1-2 in 1977, as was Johnstown in 1939 and Spectacular Bid in 1978.
The longest-priced favorite title in Kentucky Derby history belongs to Lookin at Lucky, who was sixth at odds of 6.30-1 in 2010. Harlan’s Holiday was 6-1 in 2002 and Sweetsouthernsaint was 5.50-1 in 2006. In 2013 Orb was the longest-priced favorite to win when he left the gate at odds of 5.40-1. Other longer favorites to win are Street Sense, who was 4.90-1 in 2007; and Always Dreaming, who was 4.70-1 in 2017.
In the re-arranged Triple Crown in 2020, Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz The Law left the gate at .70-1 (3-5) and finished second to Authentic. Essential Quality was the near 3-1 favorite in 2021 and was third, while Epicenter was the 4-1 lukewarm favorite a year ago before finishing second to longshot Rich Strike.
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hit Show | Franco | Brad H. Cox | West, Gary and Mary | 30-1 |
| 2 | Verifying | Gaffalione | Brad H. Cox | Poulin, Jonathan, Westerberg, Magnier, Mrs. John, Smith, Derrick and Tabor, Michael B. | 15-1 |
| 3 | Two Phil’s | Loveberry | Larry Rivelli | Patricia’s Hope LLC and Sagan, Phillip | 12-1 |
| 4 | Conficence Game | Graham | J. Keith Desormeaux | Don’t Tell My Wife Stables | 20-1 |
| 5 | Tapit Trice | Saez | Todd A. Pletcher | Whisper Hill Farm, LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck) | 5-1 |
| 6 | Kinkngbarns | J. Ortiz | Todd A. Pletcher | Spendthrift Farm LLC | 12-1 |
| 7 | Reincartnate | Velazquez | Tim Yakteen | SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Masterson, Robert E., Stonestreet Stables LLC, Schoenfarber, Jay A., Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine | 50-1 |
| 8 | Mage | Castellano | Gustavo Delgado | OGMA Investments, LLC, Restrepo, Ramiro, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH | 15-1 |
| SCR | Skinner | Hernandez | John A. Shirreffs | C R K Stable | 20-1 |
| SCR | Practical Move | Vazquez | Tim Yakteen | Amestoy, Jr., Pierre Jean, Amestoy, Leslie A. and Beasley, Roger K. | SCR |
| 9 | Disarm | Rosario | Steven M. Asmussen | Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC | 30/1 |
| 10 | Jace’s Road | Geroux | Brad H. Cox | West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables LLC | 15-1 |
| 11 | Sun Thunder | Hernandez Jr | Kenneth G. McPeek | R.T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine | 30-1 |
| 12 | Angel Of Empire | Prat | Brad H. Cox | Albaugh Family Stables LLC | 8-1 |
| 13 | Forte | I. Ortiz JR. | Todd A. Pletcher | Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable | 3-1 |
| 14 | Raise Can | Corrales | Ben Colebrook | Warren, Andrew and Warren, Rania | 15-1 |
| 15 | Derma Sotogake | Lemaire | Hidetaka Otonashi | Hiroyuki Asanuma | 10-1 |
| 16 | Rocket Can | Alvarado | William I. Mott | Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc. | 15-1 |
| SCR | Lord Miles | Lopez | Todd A. Pletcher | Vegso Racing Stable | 30-1 |
| 17 | Continuar | Sakai | Yoshito Yahagi | Lion Race Horse Co. Ltd. | 50-1 |
| 18 | Cyclone Mischief | J. Rosario | D. Romans | Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Castleton Lyons. | 30-1 |
| 19 | Mandarin Hero | Kazushi Kimura | Terunobu Fujita | Hiroaki Arai. | 20-1 |
| 20 | King Russell | Rafael Bejarano | Ron Moquett | Hiroaki Arai. | 50-1 |
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
