In a previous post, I documented how favorites in the Belmont Stakes have fared over the years. While they win as often as — or even more often than — they should, they are generally overbet.
Of course, whenever this happens in a pari-mutuel system (a horse is bet heavier than it should be, especially the race favorite), it means that other horses must necessarily be underbet. Hence, it should come as no surprise when I tell you that, over the years, overlays have ruled the Belmont Stakes.
In fact, by simply playing horses that went to post at a price equal to or greater than their morning line odds one would have cashed in nine of the past 16 years (with no bets in 2012) and realized a 147 percent ROI.
Using my Win Factor Method to determine the “fair odds” and playing any horse meeting or exceeding those odds pushes the ROI up to 179 percent over the past 16 years. In fact, using my WFR, one can even anticipate overlays and play horses with morning line odds greater than their fair odds. This technique has produced four Belmont winners and a 124 percent ROI since 2000.
At US Racing, bettors also have the opportunity to take advantage of individual horse matchups. Unlike most bets, in a matchup, one cashes if their horse finishes in front of the other — the two horses can be last and second-to-last, it doesn’t matter.
I’m kind of intrigued with the two matchups involving Governor Malibu, who I think should run well. And being somewhat pessimistic about the chances of Cherry Mine, I’m particularly interested in that matchup.
However you decide to play the Belmont, good luck and enjoy the race!
(To get my computerized fair odds for the Belmont Stakes Day card of June 11, 2016, click HERE.)
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily state or reflect those of US Racing.
