Clear skies and a high of 70 degrees Fahrenheit are in the forecast for Saturday afternoon in Lexington, Kentucky, which should lead to a firm, fast turf course at Keeneland.
The $800,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (G1) for 3-year-old fillies returns to Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky, on Saturday, October 11th. Run over 1 1/8 miles on the turf, this prestigious race is a major fall target for the division and has attracted a top-class field of nine. This year’s renewal features two standout fillies who have traded blows across the country, an import from a top-tier barn, and a few high-value live longshots. For bettors, these three horses stand out as the best plays in what promises to be a highly competitive Grade 1 affair.
It's hard to look past Laurelin, who is the morning-line favorite and is still undefeated (5-for-5) in her career. Trained by H. Graham Motion, she has steadily climbed the class ladder, culminating in a dominant victory in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes in August. Her sire, Zarak, is a top-flight French stallion, and her pedigree suggests she is still improving. The unbeaten filly's last out performance earned her a strong Equibase Speed Figure of 102. With Kendrick Carmouche retaining the mount, she is expected to get a ground-saving trip from post position 2 and use her late kick to complete her perfect season with a Grade 1 win.
If Laurelin is the top contender, Fionn is the deserving second choice and a dangerous threat to win. The Brad Cox trainee has been in sensational form, winning her last three consecutive graded stakes: the Grade 3 Regret Stakes, the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational, and the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational. Her most recent win, a half-length victory over Candy Quest, earned her an Equibase Speed Figure of 105, the highest last-out figure in the field. She is a reliable late-runner with a lethal closing kick. While the outside Post 9 is not ideal, she picks up North America's leading jockey by earnings in 2025, Flavien Prat, who retains the mount after their recent successes.
The most intriguing horse at a value price is Opulent Restraint from the barn of four-time QE II Challenge Cup winning trainer Chad C. Brown. This Irish-bred filly is still seeking her first win of 2025. Still, she has been consistently competitive against Grade 1 company, finishing third in both the Belmont Oaks Invitational and the Saratoga Oaks Invitational. She has hit the board in 5 of her 7 career starts. She has a tactical advantage over the top two as a forwardly placed runner who has shown she can handle the distance. With world-class jockey Joel Rosario aboard, she is a serious threat who could steal the race if the two favorites encounter traffic or if the pace is slow.
The 2025 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is a clash of titans in the 3-year-old filly turf division. The flawless record of Laurelin (5-2) makes her the most logical pick, but she faces her toughest test yet in her Grade 1 debut. Fionn (3-1) brings Grade 1 winning experience and the highest last-out speed figure, making her a formidable adversary. Opulent Restraint (4-1), with the powerful connections of Chad Brown and Joel Rosario, offers the best value from a post that should allow her to dictate the pace. A straight bet on Laurelin is smart, but an exacta box of all three—Laurelin, Fionn, and Opulent Restraint—offers excellent coverage for what is sure to be an exciting finish.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
