Last year the main question about the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) was who would finish second to Thorpedo Anna. The superstar rewarded the chalk players as she led throughout a 2 1/2-length runaway over Raging Sea that punctuated a Horse of the Year campaign.
It's a different story this year because Thorpedo Anna was retired recently after finishing fourth in the Spinster Stakes (G1). That defeat ended a 4-for-6 season, all in stakes, and a 12-for-16 career that will put her in the Hall of Fame.
The biggest names in Saturday's 1 1/8-mile Distaff are front-running Seismic Beauty, a 4-year-old trained by Bob Baffert, and the multitalented Nitrogen, the 3-year-old filly division leader from the barn of Mark Casse. Baffert has 20 Cup victories and Casse has six, but neither Hall of Famer has won the Distaff, in which Baffert is 0-for-10 with one second-place finish.
Some handicappers will say it's a two-horse race in an event that's been dominated by favorites (18-for-41). But along with their 44% success rate are outliers that rewarded price players.
Among the shockers were Spain (55-1 in 2000), Pleasant Home (30-1, 2005) and Japan-based Marche Lorraine, who lit Del Mar's tote board and wrecked most multiple-race tickets when she scored at 49-1 odds in 2021.
Here's a rundown of the field:
Seismic Beauty (post 8, 9-5) dominated her last three races by a total of 16½ lengths, including the 1 1/16-mile Clement Hirsch (G1) last time at Del Mar. “She’s a very big filly with a lot of speed,” Baffert said. She’s been training brilliantly, which is typical of Baffert horses, so she’s primed to come out firing.
But can she go wire to wire against this bunch? Longshots Gin Gin (7, 12-1), Scylla (4, 15-1), Gun Song (10, 30-1), Scottish Lassie (5, 12-1) and Dry Powder (11, 20-1) all have early foot. None of those five looks like a winner on paper but they could have a major impact if they press the pace.
If Seismic Beauty can get an uncontested lead, as she did in her last two races, she might not be caught. But she lost three of the four times when she faced pressure, so that’s a red flag. Other possible stumbling blocks: She hasn’t run since early August, and it’s her first time against a full field. In her three races this year Seismic Beauty faced a total of 13 horses.
The Distaff will be only the fourth main-track start for Nitrogen (1, 4-1), who is a nose away from being 4-for-4 on turf this year. She tuned up Friday with a half-mile breeze in 48 4/5 seconds at Churchill Downs. “She worked great,” Casse said. “I’m very happy with her.”
Nitrogen’s stalking style should give her a tactical edge, but her late-pace figures on dirt are weak. She ran second to 18-1 Gin Gin last time in the Spinster, failing to get by her in a slow (13 4/5-second) final furlong in her only loss on dirt.
Clicquot (3, 10-1) could be peaking for trainer Brendan Walsh, who is on a roll this fall. The stalker has won four in a row against lesser opponents entering her first Grade 1, and she still has upside in only her sixth career start.
Another possible price play is the talented but inconsistent Dorth Vader (12, 12-1), who’s a photo finish away from being 2-for-2 this season at 1 1/8 miles in Grade 1 company. She lost the Personal Ensign by a nose to Thorpedo Anna at Saratoga, and a repeat of that performance would put her in the mix.
It’s hard to recommend any of the others. Japanese shipper Alice Verite (6, 20-1) is in over her head. She was fourth in last year’s Distaff, her only race on dirt, and is 0-for-4 on grass in 2025. Regaled (13, 30-1) is 2-for-13 on fast tracks and never been in a Grade 1. Sarawak Rim (2, 12-1) is 4-for-5 in Argentina but takes a quantum leap in class.
For those who betting racing ...
The picks: 1 Nitrogen 2 Dorth Vader 3 Seismic Beauty
Betting advice: Box Seismic Beauty, Nitrogen and Dorth Vader in exactas and use all three in multiple-race wagers. Bet Nitrogen and Dorth Vader to win.
1 Nitrogen (Jose Ortiz, Mark), 4-1
2 Sarawak Rim (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Ignacio Correas IV), 12-1
3 Clicquot (Flavien Prat, Brendan Walsh), 10-1
4 Scylla (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott, 15/1
5 Scottish Lassie (Joel Rosario, J R Abreu), 12-1
6 Alice Verite (Kyle Frey, Kazuya Nakatake), 20-1
7 Gin Gin (Luis Saez, Brendan Walsh), 12-1
8 Seismic Beauty (Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert), 9-5
9 Majestic Oops (Umberto Rispoli, Dan Ward), 30-1
10 Gun Song (Tyler Gaffalione, Mark Hennig), 30-1
11 Dry Powder (Antonio Fresu, Chad Summers), 20-1
12 Dorth Vader (John Velazquez, George Weaver), 5-1 13 Regaled (Joe Ramos, Whit Beckman), 30-1
