Let’s go shopping for value in the $400,000 Frizette Stakes (G1) for 2-year-old fillies on Saturday at Belmont at the Big A.
Senza Parole is the odd-on 3-5 favorite in the 1-mile race that is also a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” stakes. The winner gets an expenses-paid trip to the BC Juvenile Fillies (G1) next month at Del Mar.
As an added bonus, the winner also earns 10 qualifying points toward a spot in the 2025 Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Senza Parole. NYRA/Coglianese Photo.
Chad Brown filly is the heavy favorite against nine others in the Frizette
As you can see, there is plenty on the line for the 10 fillies in the Frizette.
As for horseplayers, there is much less incentive with respect to Senza Parole. Translated from Italian, Senza Parole is “without words”. In the Frizette, Senza Parole is likely without value for the bettors.
She wowed the crowd at Saratoga with her debut win, cruising to a 7 ¾-length victory while blazing the 6 furlongs in 1:09.84, a clocking that would beat most juveniles of any gender.
“She was very impressive,” trainer Chad Brown said in an understatement. “We were cautiously optimistic that she would put in a good performance the first time out.”
Senza Parole certainly delivered at final odds of 7-2.
Based on that effort, we won’t see anything close to that price in the Frizette, given that debut showcase and the connections of Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. who always take action at the windows.
As brilliant as Senza Parole was at first asking, there are still questions to be answered. Can she step up from a maiden win to capture a Grade 1 stakes? And most tellingly, can she handle the additional quarter-of-a-mile in the Frizette?
“She’s been a brilliantly fast horse, so we’ll test her stretching out,” Brown said.
Who can spring an upset?
Therein lies the value possibility for the horseplayer, as there is a horse in here who is already proven at the distance.
That turns our attention to Social Fortress (12-1), a perfect 2-for-2, giving her an experience edge on Senza Parole.
Social Fortress cruised to a commanding 7-length win most recently in the 1-mile Sorority Stakes at Monmouth Park.
“The distance, I don’t think, is an issue for her,” said Jamie Ness, one the leading trainers in the Mid-Atlantic region.
That’s music to a value players’ ears.
The Frizette is race 7 with a post time of 3:17 p.m. ET.
The other BC “Win and You’re In’’ race on Saturday’s card is the Champagne Stakes (G1). Also on the card are the Belmont Turf Sprint (G3) and the Jockey Club Derby Invitational (G3).
For those who bet horse racing …
The picks: 1 Social Fortress 2 Senza Parole 3 Snowyte
The field for the $400,000 Frizette Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Snowyte (Joel Rosario, Danny Gargan), 6-1
2 The Queens M G (Dylan Davis, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 10-1
3 Pondering (Flavien Prat, Brendan Walsh), 12-1
4 Whatintheliteral (Jorge Ruiz, Jena Antonucci), 50-1
5 Scottish Lassie (Jose Lezcano, Jorge Abreu), 15-1
6 Paradise City (Manny Franco, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 12-1
7 Another Cleeshay (Junior Alvarado, Gary Contessa), 20-1
8 Senza Parole (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Chad Brown), 3-5
9 Social Fortress (Jaime Rodriguez, Jamie Ness), 12-1
10 Icona Mama (Kendrick Carmouche, Flint Stites), 15-1