Is there an Oaks-Derby double out there for Brad Cox this weekend? Or for any one of five other trainers with entrants in both races?
Cox has a double-double shot at victory in the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) on Friday with 7-2 favorite Tarifa and 30-1 Gin Gin, while in the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) he will send out the duo of Catching Freedom (8-1) and Just a Touch (10-1).
“She’s won here and if she gets a good trip, she’ll be right there,” Cox said of Godolphin’s Tarifa, attempting to follow last year’s Godolphin runner Pretty Mischievous into the winner’s circle.
Tarifa. Coady Photo.
A winner of four of five starts, she enters the 1 1/8-mile race off back-to-back Grade 2 wins in the Rachel Alexandra and Fair Grounds Oaks under regular rider Flavien Prat.
“She’s very athletic. She floats over the track. She needs to settle early in the race and if she does that’s we’ll be all right,” said Cox, who won the 2020 Oaks with Shedaresthedevil and the 2018 edition with Monomoy Girl.
Hall of Famers Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Steve Asmussen, and D. Wayne Lukas, as well as
Chad Brown and Ken McPeek, also have a shot at an Oaks-Derby double.
Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks Contenders: Insights from Pletcher, Mott, and Lukas
Pletcher, a four-time winner of the Oaks, will saddle 4-1 second choice Leslie’s Rose, winner of three of four starts, most recently the Ashland (G1). He also trains Candied, second on the also-eligible list. In the Derby, the two-time winner of the Run for the Roses will saddle 5-2 favorite Fierceness.
Mott, who trains 20-1 Derby contestant Resilience, will be represented by juvenile filly champion Just F Y I, daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify.
After going 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old, she opened 3-year-old campaign with a runner-up finish behind Leslie’s Rose in the Ashland and is 9-2 on the morning line.
“Sometimes, it takes a race to really put them on edge,” said Mott of Just F Y I, who scratched from the Davona Dale (G2) in March due to a fever. “I think we accomplished that with the race in the Ashland, so hopefully it’ll move her forward.”
Just F Y I. Coady Photo.
The 88-year-old Lukas, whose Just Steel is 20-1 in the Derby, goes in search of a record-breaking sixth Oaks victory with 30-1 shot Lemon Muffin, who broke her maiden with a 28-1 victory in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park. Two years ago, Secret Oath gave him his record-tying fifth victory in the Oaks, joining Blush With Pride (1982), Lucky Lucky Lucky (1984), Open Mind (1988), and Seaside Attraction (1990).
“We feel real comfortable with where they are both at,” said the Hall of Famer. “They have done everything we have asked of them. With [Just Steel], we are coming into this off a strong effort. As for the filly, she seems to have bounced back from that last race pretty strong. So, we are looking good right now.”
The Horses to Watch in the 2024 Derby and Oaks
Asmussen sends out 20-1 shot Track Phantom in the Derby and will saddle Fair Grounds Oaks runner-up Our Pretty Woman (15-1) in the Oaks.
Brown, with deep closer Sierra Leone (3-1) in the Derby, will be represented in the Oaks with Klaravich Stables’ Ways and Means (5-1), who enters off a runner-up finish in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), and stablemate Regulatory Risk (20-1).
McPeek, whose fillies have finished second three times in the Oaks, appears super confident in Thorpedo Anna (5-1), a four-length winner of the Fantasy (G2).
“They better bring a bear, because I’m bringing a grizzly,” McPeek said. “She’s fast, she’s smart, she’s tactical – what more do you want? She could place herself about anywhere. She’ll have to run her best race, but I think handicapping the numbers, she’s got a good chance. It’s not intimidating. I think it’s wide open.”
Rounding out the field are Power Squeeze (12-1), Where’s My Ring (15-1) and Our Pretty Woman (15-1), and 30-1 shots Into Champagne, Everland, and Fiona’s Magic.
The picks: 1 Just F Y I 2 Thorpedo Anna 3 Lemon Muffin
The field for the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Tapit Jenallie (Manny Esquivel, Eddie Milligan, Jr.), 30-1 SCRATCHED
2 Gin Gin (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox), 30-1
3 Where’s My Ring (Jose Lezcano, Val Brinkerhoff), 15-1
4 Regulatory Risk (Jose Ortiz, Chad Brown), 20-1
5 Thorpedo Anna (Brian Hernandez Jr., Ken McPeek), 5-1
6 Lemon Muffin (Keith Asmussen, D. Wayne Lukas), 30-1
7 Fiona’s Magic (Luis Saez, Michael Yates), 30-1
8 Tarifa (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 7-2
9 Everland (Abel Cedillo, Eric Foster), 30-1
10 Into Champagne (Julien Leparoux, Ian Wilkes), 30-1
11 Ways and Means (Tyler Gaffalione, Chad Brown), 5-1
12 Power Squeeze (Daniel Centeno, Jorge Delgado), 12-1
13 Just F Y I (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott), 9-2
14 Leslie’s Rose (Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher), 4-1
15 Our Pretty Woman (Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen), 15-1
Also-eligible
Candied (Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher), 20-1