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Kentucky Derby Contenders: Top 10 for (Week of 2/10/25)

This is the calm-before-the-storm week on the Kentucky Derby prep races, with no changes in the latest usracing.com Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10. 

No big-name dropouts (yet). No missteps by current contenders. And a win by John Hancock in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday (Feb. 1) was not enough to get him on the list. 

Barnes. Benoit Photo.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Analysis

East Avenue Overcoming and Chances for this Week

After this weekend, there’s a substantial chance changes will occur as No. 3 East Avenue, earlier Top 10er Jonathan’s Way, and rising prospect Vassimo are set for the $500,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds on Saturday. 

East Avenue, already a Grade 1 winner at 2, stumbled severely out of the gate and finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) but has worked steadily for his 3-year-old debut. 

The 1 1/8-mile Risen Star is the first Derby points qualifier that guarantees the winner a spot in the Run for the Roses (the Derby field is limited to 20 starters based on points earned). The Risen Star offers points of 50-25-15-10-5 to the first five finishers on a sliding scale.

Bob Baffert’s Contenders Duo

Once again, six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert holds the top two spots in the Top 10 with unbeaten Barnes and 2-year-old champion and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner Citizen Bull. 

Citizen Bull opened Tuesday (Feb. 11) as the 6-1 individual favorite in pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager (the pool closes on Sunday, Feb. 16). 

Baffert Picked his Favorite for the Sunland Park Derby. 

On Sunday, the $400,000 Sunland Park Derby offers Derby points of 20-10-6-4-2. Baffert sends out the 9-5 favorite Getaway Car, while McKenzie Street is the second choice under new trainer Justin Evans, who takes over for Tim Yakteen. 

On Deck: Rebel (F22) … Fountain of Youth, San Felipe, Gotham (M1) 

The following Saturday (Feb. 22) should be a doozy with four of our Top 10 listed as possibles for the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park: Barnes, No. 5 Disco Time, No. 9 Speed King, and No. 10 Sandman. 

In two weeks (March 1), the Top 10 will take on a new look following the San Felipe Stakes (G2), the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), and the Gotham Stakes (G3). 

The San Felipe could include Citizen Bull and/or Barnes and No. 3 Journalism; the Fountain of Youth may have No. 8 Sovereignty and highly-regarded prospects Burnham Square (Holy Bull winner), Gate to Wire, and Ferocious. 

We’ll be wagering and watching.  

Jockeys are listed from the horse’s most recent race. 

Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10 for (Week of 2/10/25)

  1. BARNES (Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez)

Barnes keeps rollin’ along – a 5-furlong work in 58.80 seconds at Santa Anita on Feb. 11, the fastest of 47 at the distance … On Feb. 1, he went 5 furlongs in 59.80 …Won 7-furlong San Vicente by 5 ½ lengths on Jan. 4 to improve to 2-0 … Purchased for $3.2 million by Amr Zedan. … Pedigree: Into Mischief-All American Dream, by American Pharoah … Next start: Rebel, Oaklawn, Feb. 22 … Derby points: 0 … Kentucky Derby odds: 8-1 (pool 4 closes Feb. 16).   

  1. CITIZEN BULL (Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia)  

2-year-old champion is off to a rousing 3-year-old start with his Robert B. Lewis win on Feb. 1 … BC Juvenile winner is now 4-for-5 with $1.5 in earnings … Pedigree: Into Mischief-No Joke, by Distorted Humor … Next start: San Felipe, Santa Anita, March 1 … Derby points: 60 (1st) … Kentucky Derby odds: 6-1.   

  1. JOURNALISM (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli)  

He worked 5 furlongs in 59.80 at Santa Anita on Feb. 9 – seventh fastest of 101 at a distance… Los Alamitos Futurity win over Gaming and Getaway Car keeps him high on the list … Pedigree: Curlin-Mopotism, by Uncle Mo … Next start: San Felipe, Santa Anita, March 1 … Derby points: 10 (21st) … Kentucky Derby odds: 20-1.   

  1. EAST AVENUE (Brendan Walsh, Tyler Gaffalione) 

He worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.40 at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 8. He is Likely the Risen Star favorite in a 13-horse field and remains the top contender as BC Juvenile is a toss after colt stumbled badly at the start … Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro-Dance Music, by Ghostzapper … Next start: Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Feb. 15 … Derby points: 10 (19th) … Kentucky Derby odds: 15-1.   

  1. DISCO TIME (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux)

He remains in training but has no posted workout since their neck win over Built-in Lecomte on Jan. 18 … He’s 3-0 with his first two wins at Churchill Downs, so what’s not to like? … Pedigree: Not This Time-Disco Chick, by Jump Start … Next start: TBD … Derby points: 20 (5th) … Kentucky Derby odds: 25-1.  

  1. CAPTAIN COOK (Manny Franco, Rick Dutrow, Jr.) 

He remains in this slot a week after Withers win at 1 1/8 miles … He’s 2-for-3. He looks like he’ll run once more to gain a berth in the Derby … Purchased for $410,000 at Keeneland November horses of racing age sale by St. Elias Stable … Pedigree: Practical Joker-Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie … Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, April 5 … Derby points: 20 (6th) … Kentucky Derby odds: 20-1. 

  1. COAL BATTLE (Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas)  

Worked 5 furlongs in 1:02.20 at Oaklawn on Feb. 10 – slowest of 14 at the distance … Won Smarty Jones by four lengths going gate to wire … Colt is 4-for-6 … Pedigree: Coal Front-Wolfblade, by Midshipman … Next start: Rebel, Oaklawn, Feb. 22 … Derby points: 20 (3rd) … Kentucky Derby odds: 40-1.   

  1. SOVEREIGNTY (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado)  

It looks like he’s ready for his 3-year-old debut … worked 4 furlongs in 49.60 at Payson Park on Feb. 7 … Won Street Sense by five lengths with his last-to-first run at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs on Oct. 27 … Pedigree: Into Mischief-Crowned, by Bernardini … Next start: Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream, March 1 … Derby points: 10 (22nd) …  Kentucky Derby odds: 20-1.   

  1. SPEED KING (Rafael Bejarano, Ron Moquett)  

Not such a speedy work on Feb. 8 at Oaklawn – 5 furlongs in 1:04.00 — 29th of 32 at the distance … Won Southwest going gate-to-wire, but Rebel will determine where he fits in … Pedigree: Volatile-Athenian Beauty, by Corinthian … Next start: Rebel, Oaklawn, Feb. 22 … Derby points: 25 (2nd) … Kentucky Derby odds: 30-1. 

  1. SANDMAN (Cristian Torres, Mark Casse)  

Gets a chance to shine in a few weeks but is working well toward that goal … Worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.40 at Oaklawn on Feb. 9, sixth fastest of 37 at the distance …  Strong rally in Southwest keeps him here … Pedigree: Tapit-Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor … Next start: Rebel, Oaklawn, Feb. 22 … Derby points 14 (15th) … Kentucky Derby odds: 40-1. 

 

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