KENTUCKY DERBY 150: USRacing.com Derby Top 10

In the runup to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4, usracing.com continues with our weekly Derby Top 10 contenders.

Derby Top 10: Sierra Leone New No. 1; Locked Drops

Locked is no longer loaded.

After missing his 3-year-old debut race again, this time in the Fountain of Youth (G2), Locked is out as No. 1 in the latest usracing.com Derby Top 10.

Moving up to No. 1 is Sierra Leone, who at this point on the road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) has put in the best prep performance – a stretch drive in the slop for a half-length win over Track Phantom in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 17.

Sierra Leone, a Kentucky bred son of Gun Runner, has won two of three starts, the loss coming by a nose to highly regarded Dornoch (No. 3) in the Remsen (G3) over a muddy Aqueduct track on Dec. 2.

Sierra Leone is trained by Chad Brown; Tyler Gaffalione was aboard for the Risen Star. Both are looking for their first Kentucky Derby win.

Locked, meanwhile, was scratched out of the Fountain of Youth (March 2) at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Todd Pletcher said he didn’t like the way the colt galloped in the hours before the race.

“We’ll regroup,’’ Pletcher said.

Dornoch has now won three in a row after two runner-up finishes for trainer Danny Gargan, with Luis Saez aboard for all the victories. With enough Derby qualifying points to make the field for the Run for the Roses on May 4, Gargan is leaving his options open for another prep – either the Florida Derby (G1) on March 30 or the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 6.

Another big winner on Saturday was Deterministic in the Gotham (G3) at the Big A. With just a maiden win in August in Saratoga on his resume, the Christophe Clement-trainee was a two-length winner over favorite Just a Touch,

Ten prep races with Derby qualifying points remain, beginning with Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3). No More Time, winner of the Sam F. Davis (G3), is among the top contenders, with a sliding scale of 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers.

The latest  usracing.com Derby Top 10

1 Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione)

Back at work with a 4-fourlong breeze in 49.00 on March at 2 at Payson Park … To us, winning effort in Risen Star in a competitive field over sloppy track rates as best prep so far … Son of Gun Runner has won 2-of-3 – ran second by a nose to Dornoch in Remsen … Next start: Blue Grass, Keeneland, April 6 … No. 3 on Derby points leaderboard (55) … Derby future wager odds: 6-1.

2 Timberlake (Brad Cox, Cristian Torres)

Defeated 11 rivals in Rebel in 3-year-old debut, a reason to believe large Derby field won’t be an issue … Son of Into Mischief has quite a few races on his resume with a 6-3-1-0 record … Won Champagne as 2-year-old, ran fourth in BC Juvenile, and scored by two lengths in Rebel … Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 30 or Blue Grass. Keeneland, April 6 … No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (66) … Derby future wager odds: 15-1.

3 Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez)

A win wasn’t the goal, but Dornoch had little competition in capturing Fountain of Youth on March 2 … Top challengers Locked, Speak Easy, and Victory Avenue were race day scratches … Winner of three straight after two runner-up finishes to start career … Owns nose victory over Sierra Leone in Remsen … Full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage … Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30, or Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, April 6 … No. 2 on Derby points leaderboard (60) … Derby future wager odds: 9-1.

4 Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez)

Worked 4 furlongs in 48.89 at Palm Beach Downs on March 1 in second breeze since disappointing third in Holy Bull on Feb. 3 … Pletcher” [Fierceness) had a strong gallop-out, looked good. He’s continued to train really good since the Holy Bull.’’ … Worked in company with Agate Road, another Pletcher Derby prospect … Won BC Juvenile on Nov. 3; voted Eclipse Award winner as champion 2-year-old male … Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30 … No. 6 on Derby points leaderboard (36) … Derby future wager odds: 16-1.

5 Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario)

In first work since narrow loss to Sierra Leone in Risen Star, colt went 5 furlongs in 1:02.60 at the Fair Grounds … Son of Quality Road owns wins in Gun Runner and Lecomte, and is scheduled to complete the four-prep Louisiana road to the Derby in a few weeks … Next start: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, March 23 … No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (55) … Derby future wager odds: 20-1.

6 Deterministic (Christophe Clement, Joel Rosario)

Newcomer moves into Derby Top 10 after popular win in Gotham over 10 rivals … Longtime trainer Clement, best known as one of the top turf conditioners, is looking at competing in his first Derby … Won by two lengths over closing Just a Touch in second career start – first was debut win on Aug. 12 at Saratoga … Son of Liam’s Map-Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown … Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, April 6 … No. 5 on Derby points leaderboard (50) … Derby future wager odds: 93-1.

7 Tuscan Sky (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez)

Worked 4 furlongs in 49.83 at Palm Beach Downs on March 1 following Feb. 17 optional claimer win at the Fair Grounds … Pletcher: “We feel like he’s an improving colt. He’s been perfect so far (2-for-2). We’re looking for a Derby prep. We’re just not sure which one.” … Next start: TBD … Derby qualifying points (0) … Derby future wager: 31-1.

8 Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux)

Impressive stretch run to get up for second in Gotham moves him into Derby Top 10 … Did not race as 2-year-old, and has only two starts – a maiden win at the Fair Grounds preceded Gotham effort … Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify was purchased for $300,000 at Ocala breeders’ spring sale for 2-year-olds … Next start: TBD … No. 11 on Derby points leaderboard (25) … Derby future wager odds: 27-1.

9 Hades (Joe Orseno, Paco Lopez)

Veteran trainer Orseno has no regrets in passing up Fountain of Youth to wait for Florida Derby … After upset of Fierceness in Holy Bull on Jan. 27, gelding is 3-for-3 … Posted third work since Holy Bull, breezing 4 furlongs in 48.64 at Gulfstream on March 3 … Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30 … No. 13 on Derby points leaderboard (20) … Derby future wager odds: 32-1.

10 (tie) Locked (Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz)

Another prep, another scratch to have us wondering if Derby remains in the plans … However, the biggest preps ahead if Locked can reload for qualifying points of 100-50-25-15-10 to the top five finishers … Third in BC Juvenile on Nov. 3 in last race … Missed Sam F. Davis on Feb. 10 with fever; missed Fountain of Youth following morning-of-race gallop Pletcher was not comfortable with … Next start: TBD …  No. 17 on Derby points leaderboard (19) … Derby future wager odds (pool 4): 16-1.

10 (tie) Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai)

Can’t drop unbeaten Japan-bred after narrow Saudi Derby win over Book’em Danno … Ranks second on Japan road to Derby with win in Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun in December … Next start: UAE Derby, Meydan Racecourse, March 30 … No. 2 on Japan leaderboard (20) … Derby future wager odds: 21-1.

On the bubble: Agate Road, Mystik Dan, No More Time

Note: With trainer Bob Baffert still banned by Churchill Downs Inc., none of his 3-year-olds can earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points, thus none are in our Derby Top 10. They include Imagination, Muth, and Nysos, who would have been atop the list.