In the runup to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1), usracing.com presents our first Top 10 contenders list. Rankings will be updated periodically as Derby preps with qualifying points are contested over the next 3 ½ months.
The points pick up, the prize money picks up, and the pace picks up in the next phase on the road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 4.
Completed are the Derby preps with a 10-5-3-2-1 points scale for the first five finishers (exception: the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was at 30-15-9-6-3). Starting with the Lecomte (G3) at the Fair Grounds on Jan. 20, the points double to 20-10-6-4-2 for eight preps through March 2, and the next scale of 50-25-15-10-5 opens with the Risen Star (G2) on Feb. 17 for six preps.
The eight biggies with points of 100-50-25-15-10 begin March 23 with the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park and the Louisiana Derby (G3) at the Fair Grounds.
While trainers of newly turned 3-year-olds are mapping out plans to get their top horses to Louisville on the first Saturday in May, usracing.com has compiled an opening list of the Top 10 contenders.
Kentucky Derby 2024: Trainer Insights on Baffert’s Suspension and Leading Contenders
Five-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert is still suspended by Churchill Downs and banned from racing in the Derby for a third straight year (due to 2021 first-place finisher Medina Spirit’s DQ for a medication overage). If he transfers a horse to another trainer, then the horse can earn Derby qualifying points.
Two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has a handful of prospects, including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Fierceness and third-place finisher Locked.
Baffert trains Muth, second in the Juvenile and winner of the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita on Jan. 6.
Brad Cox, the nation’s leading trainer in 2023, has no less than six promising 3-year-olds – Timberlake and Catching Freedom among them — and Steve Asmussen, 0-for-25 in the Derby, also has a handful of prospects, including Track Phantom and Otto the Conqueror.
The Derby future wager lists odds for 38 horses; all other 3-year-olds (excluding fillies) are at 6-5. There are several more pools to come.
And away we go:
Kentucky Derby Top 10 Rankings
1. Locked (Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz)
2. Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez)
With wow win in BC Juvenile – by 6 ¼ lengths over Muth – Mike Repole has himself the likely 2-year-old male champion and early Derby favorite … Two of 40 Juvenile winners (5%) have gone on to win Derby … Won in debut, but disappointing seventh in Champagne on Oct. 7 … Training at Palm Beach Downs, worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.34 on Jan. 4 … Son of City of Light-Nona Bella, by Stay Thirsty … Next stat: TBD … No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (30) … Derby future wager odds: 8-1.
3. Muth (Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez)
4. Nash (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux)
Could be year Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin LLC seriously challenges for first Derby win … 3-1-1-1 2-year-old record includes maiden win at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill … Son of Medaglia d’Oro-Sarah Louise, by Malibu Moon … Third in Gun Runner at Fair Grounds on Dec. 23 … Next start: TBD … No. 32 on Derby leaderboard with 3 points … Derby future wager odds: 18-1.
5. Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Cristian Torres)
Bay son of Constitution ruled 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on Jan. 1 … Like other contenders, the colt broke maiden at Churchill on Oct. 1, followed by fourth in allowance optional claimer at same track Nov. 9 … Won Smarty Jones by 2 ½ lengths on Jan. 1 … Purchased for $575,000 by Albaugh Family Stables … 2-for-3 in 2023 … Next start: TBD … No. 10 on Derby leaderboard with 10 points … Derby future wager odds: 52-1.
Son of Good Magic purchased for $325,000 at Keeneland yearling sale … Multiple owners: West Paces Racing; R.A. Hill Sable; Belar Racing and Breeding; Two Eight Racing; Pine Racing Stables … Gargan mapped out run to Derby following colt’s nose win in Remsen at Big A on Dec. 12 … 4-2-2-0 as 2-year-old … Next start: Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park, March 2 … No. 9 on Derby leaderboard with 10 points … Derby future wager odds: 19-1.
7. Snead (Brendan Walsh, Jareth Loveberry)
Gray son of 2015 Derby winner Nyquist finished closing second to Track Phantom in Gun Runner at Fair Grounds, and has a 5-2-1-1 record for owners Imagine Racing and Margaret Fauber … Bypassing Lecomte and training for Risen Star … Broke maiden at third asking at 1-mile at Churchill on Oct. 29, moved to Fair Grounds, won allowance optional claimer by 7 ¼ lengths on Nov. 23 by 7 ¼ lengths … Next start: Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Feb. 17 … No. 23 on Derby leaderboard with 5 points … Derby future wager odds: 6-5 (all other 3-year-old colts/geldings).
8. Timberlake (Brad Cox, John Velazquez)
Won Champagne by 4 ¼ lengths over sloppy track on Oct. 7 … Ran fourth in BC Juvenile after the rank start, flat finish to close out 2-year-old season at 5-2-1-0 … Has not had timed workout in last 60 days as of Jan. 11 … Into Mischief colt owned by Siena Farm and WinStar Farm … Purchased for $350,000 at Keeneland yearling sale … Next start: Rebel, Oaklawn Park, Feb. 24 … No. 3 on Derby leaderboard with 16 points … Derby future wager odds: 27-1.
Ribble Farms-owned son of Honor Code won Kentucky Jockey Club with last-to-first stretch run on Nov. 23 … Purchased for $40,000 at Keeneland yearling sale … All three 2-year-old starts at Churchill – 3-2-1-0 record … Worked 4 furlongs in 49.20 at Fair Grounds on Jan. 7 … Next start: Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Feb. 17 … No. 7 on Derby leaderboard with 10 points … Derby future wager odds: 6-5 (all other 3-year-old colts/geldings).
10. Just Steel (D. Wayne Lukas, Ramon Vazquez)
Well-seasoned with eight races, most recently second to Catching Freedom in Smarty Jones on Jan. 1 … 2-for-7 as 2-year-old for BC Stables, running off-he-board in two Grade 1s, Hopeful and Breeders’ Futurity … Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify … Worked 5 furlongs in 1:02.00 at Fair Grounds on Jan. 11 … Next start: TBD … No. 16 on Derby leaderboard with 5 points … Derby future wager odds: 6-5 (all other 3-year-old colts/geldings).