It’s a long way to Tipperary from Japan, more than 6,000 miles, and it took Auguste Rodin 27½ hours to get there for Sunday’s $3.5 million Japan Cup (G1). The 1½-mile grass race at Tokyo Racecourse will be the finale for the 4-year-old star, who will stand at stud next year for his owner, Irish superpower Coolmore.
Auguste Rodin’s Journey to the 2024 Japan Cup: Key Storylines
After his grueling journey, Auguste Rodin will face the toughest challenge of his career against a standout international field. Japan-based runners took 29 of the first 43 Japan Cups, including the last 18. No foreigner has won since Alkaased in 2005, and Auguste Rodin is 1-for-5 since taking last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).
All-conquering trainer Aidan O’Brien was upbeat about his colt’s chances after Wednesday’s 7-furlong gallop.
“He has speed and class, long strides and big action,” he said. “He is great at the mile-and-a-half distance, so I think the course will suit him.”
Post time is 1:40 a.m. ET Sunday, with live coverage by FanDuel TV. Here’s a rundown of the leading contenders, with jockey and trainer in parentheses:
CERVINIA (Christophe Lemaire, Tetsuya Kimura)
Transplanted Frenchman Lemaire is Japan’s leading rider, and he and Kimura won last year’s Japan Cup with Equinox, subsequently voted Horse of the World. His 3-year-old filly never has faced older males but gets an 8.8-pound weight break.
She comes in off a dazzling performance against 3-year-old fillies in the 1¼-mile Shuka Sho (G1). Her big finish, time of 1:57.1 and an earlier win at 1½ miles make her dangerous, yet she’s going against history. She would be only the third horse to take the Japan Cup in a seventh lifetime start, and only two 3-year-old fillies won it. So, is she worth a bet at a short price?
Betting verdict: Win contender
DO DEUCE (Yutaka Take, Yasuo Tomomichi)
The 5-year-old looked terrific taking the 1¼-mile, Grade 1 Tenno Sho from far back last time out, when he blasted through Tokyo Racecourse’s final 3 furlongs in an amazing 32.5 seconds. He was out in the middle of the course and still won easily.
He’s battle-tested but not over-raced (7-for-15 lifetime) and has a Grade 1 victory in each of the past four years. Ran fourth in last year’s Japan Cup to superstar Equinox, whom he defeated in the 2022 Japanese Derby. Like Cervinia, he has one win at 12 furlongs.
Betting verdict: The pick
AUGUSTE RODIN (Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien)
He’s a world-class in-and-outer, nearly unbeatable in top form but a flop (12th, 10th, 12th, 5th) when he isn’t. O’Brien and Moore are racing’s greatest combination, but he’s often frustrated them.
He prefers the fast ground he’ll get, because the weekend forecast is dry. Six wins in Grade 1/Group 1, two at 1½ miles, but you never know which version of him will show up. If he’s 6-1 or so, go for it, but his 1-for-4 2024 record doesn’t recommend him.
Betting verdict: Toss
GOLIATH (Christophe Soumillon, Francis-Henri Graffard)
Loves the distance, with five wins and two seconds in eight starts at 12 furlongs. This French-trained German-bred is best with give in the ground, which unfortunately for him won’t be the case. But he won on good-to-firm going in a 25-1 upset in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) at Ascot, easily defeating Auguste Rodin (fifth) as well as Bluestocking (second) and Rebel’s Romance (third), subsequent winners of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Turf, respectively.
Could this Goliath play the role of David? He could be ready to rock.
Betting verdict: Win contender
For those who bet horse racing …
The picks: 1 Do Deuce 2 Goliath 3 Cervinia