Trainer Aidan O’Brien figured Diego Velasquez would prefer firmer turf than what he’s run on in Ireland, so he sent him to New York for the Aug. 3 Saratoga Derby Invitational. Then heavy rain postponed the Grade 1 race to this Saturday. Oh well. So, O’Brien sent his colt back home, which proved to be wise, because a drenching from oncoming Tropical Storm Debby might push back the race a day later.
The New York Racing Association announced Wednesday that the Saratoga Derby and the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap will be run Sunday if the Spa’s turf courses are soaked by Saturday.
For those who like to bet horse racing, here’s the horse-by-horse breakdowns of those races from the rail out, with trainer, jockey and odds in parentheses:
$600,000 SARATOGA DERBY (G1), 1 3/16 miles
1. LEGEND OF TIME
(Charlie Appleby, Flavien Prat, 5-2)
Godolphin colt was trapped behind a slow pace in second loss to Trikari as the favorite. Four wins on wet turf, 2-for-4 in graded stakes. You won’t get that generous 5-2 morning line due to top-level connections but could easily win.
Betting verdict: Win contender
2. IZZY D’ORO
(Blake Kelly, Irad Ortiz Jr., 15-1)
Makes graded-stakes debut with 1-for-5 record on grass. In way over his head.
Betting verdict: Toss
3. ROYAL MAJESTY
(Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 8-1)
Total of two lengths behind Legend of Time when third, fourth in stakes. Son of super sire Frankel won only race on non-firm turf and eligible to improve.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
4. CARSON’S RUN
(Christophe Clement, Dylan Davis, 8-1)
Strong finisher comes in off big win over weaker at Monmouth. Never been past 1 1/16 miles but ran well twice last fall in graded stakes on wet turf at Woodbine.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
5. FULMINEO
(Arnaud Delacour, Tyler Gaffalione, 10-1)
Rise in class an issue, but he moves way up on soft going. Negative: Crystal Quest, second to Fulmineo in last two, ran poorly last week in Spa stakes.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
6. DETERMINISTIC
(Christophe Clement, Joel Rosario, 9-2)
Close second in grass debut last out to multiple-stakes winner Neat, subsequent hero of Hall of Fame Stakes. Excellent closer at shorter distances, but that style usually doesn’t play well going longer, and he’s stretching out three-sixteenths of a mile.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
7. FIRST WORLD WAR
(Brendan Walsh, Frankie Dettori, 9-2)
Makes Grade 1 debut, and 0-for-2 on wet ground. Biggest win by a nose over a colt who’s 0-for-4 in stakes. Up against it.
Betting verdict: Toss
8. TRIKARI
(Graham Motion, John Velazquez, 3-1)
Consistent colt’s biggest number came on rain-softened course on Derby Day. Negative: Got perfect stalking trip off slow pace to beat Legend of Time in Belmont Derby.
Betting verdict: Win contender
The picks: 1 Legend of Time 2 Fulmineo 3 Trikari
$500,000 FOURSTARDAVE HANDICAP (G1), 1 mile
1. STRONG QUALITY
(Mark Casse, Dylan Davis, 8-1)
Speedy but 0-for-3 at Grade 1; likely pace casualty.
Betting verdict: Toss
2. MASTER OF THE SEAS – SCRATCHED
3. MAJOR DUDE
(Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 8-1)
Gets first Grade 1 shot after taking $80,000 optional claimer. Usually close but only 2-for-6 in graded stakes. Doesn’t class up.
Betting verdict: Toss
4. CARL SPACKLER
(Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 9-5)
Likely second choice in Grade 1 debut is 2-for-2 on wet grass at Spa, where he’s 3-for-4. Rocketed final furlong in 22 3/5 seconds to win Grade 3 last time. Needs Master of the Seas to run below form.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
5. MONEY SUPPLY
(Joe Sharp, Manny Franco, 10-1)
Pulled 9-1 upset in listed stake in Indiana in first grass try. Quantum leap in class.
Betting verdict: Toss
6. OTTOMAN FLEET
(Charlie Appleby, Joel Rosario, 8-5)
Speedy five-time graded stakes winner could make it a 1-2 finish for Appleby.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
7. MORE THAN LOOKS
(Cherie DeVaux, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7-2)
Tough spot for first race since Breeders’ Cup Mile, where he surged late for sixth, only two lengths behind Master of the Seas. Will win more races, but not this one.
Betting verdict: Toss
The picks: 1 Master of the Seas 2 Carl Spackler 3 Ottoman Fleet