It’s a long way to the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs, but it’s already time for 2-year-old colts and fillies to take their first steps on the road to the marquee events of spring.
Saturday’s card in Louisville features two Grade 2 races for juveniles, the $400,000 Golden Rod Stakes for the girls and the $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes for the boys, both at 1 1/16 miles. Qualifying points for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis will be awarded to the first five finishers.
Jonathan’s Way. Coady Photo.
Two big preps for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks are on tap at Churchill Downs on Saturday
No matter who wins, be careful about drawing any conclusions about next season. It’s been more than 15 years since the last Golden Rod-Oaks double (Rachel Alexandra, 2008 and 2009). It’s also been that long since Super Saver won the Kentucky Jockey Club and the 2009 Derby.
Whenever inexperienced juveniles go two turns for the first time, it’s always a guessing game. Sometimes the ones who excelled in sprints can’t handle the added distance. Sometimes the ones who struggled at 5½ and 6 furlongs run a career top going farther. You never can tell — part of the charm and the stress of handicapping 2-year-olds.
Knowing pedigree can help you smoke out a 15-1 winner, because bloodlines can be just as important as past performances in these situations. For those who like to bet on horse racing, here are a few handicapping tips for the Golden Rod and the Kentucky Jockey Club.
GOLDEN ROD STAKES (4:48 p.m. ET post)
Good Cheer’s numbers jump off the page, making her a certain odds-on favorite for trainer Brad Cox. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is 3-for-3, all around two turns, by an average margin of 10 lengths. She’s a stalker who has overcome traffic problems and slow paces. It’s her graded-stakes debut, but only one opponent, Quietside, has stakes experience, where she’s 0-for-2.
Quietside ran a solid second and third in those races to Immersive, Cox’s 4-for-4 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine and certain Eclipse Award winner. If Good Cheer wins for the third time at Churchill, Cox’s other runner, Eclatant, a speedy 2-for-2 sprinter, could battle Quietside for second. Sturgeon Moon, 2-for-3 with a two-turn win in a high-priced claimer at Keeneland, looks like the best of the others.
The picks: 1 Good Cheer 2 Quietside 3 Eclatant
KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES (5:48 p.m. ET post)
The bandwagon was growing for Jonathan’s Way after romps in his Saratoga debut and the mile Iroquois Stakes at Churchill. The Ohio-bred never got involved when seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, hindered by a lack of pace and Joel Rosario’s tentative ride behind wire-to-wire winner Citizen Bull.
Quick early fractions seem likely from the mix of First Resort, Dapper Moon, Clock Tower and Redacted. Expect Rosario to put Jonathan’s Way just behind the first flight in a ground-saving trip from post 2. The wild card is Woodbine shipper He’s Not Joking, making his dirt debut after going 2-for-4 on synthetic. He’s training well in Canada and could spring a surprise.
The picks: 1 Jonathan’s Way 2 First Resort 3 He’s Not Joking