Analysis of the 14 horses set to run in Saturday’s Classic
It’s the Super Bowl of dirt racing, the 1¼-mile showdown for glory and megabucks. The $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is the grand finale and often the kingmaker, with 15 of its winners voted Horse of the Year.
Yet Saturday’s 41st Classic at Del Mar may not determine the ultimate award. Unless Fierceness wins, superstar filly Thorpedo Anna could get it if she takes the Distaff. If both lose, all kinds of scenarios come into play. If the Classic goes to Ireland’s City of Troy or Japan’s Forever Young, then what?
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Time to examine the nuts and bolts and make an educated guess about the Classic’s outcome. Here’s a horse-by-horse analysis from the rail out, with jockey, trainer and odds in parentheses:
$7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), post time 5:41 p.m. ET
2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds, Post Positions and Betting Picks
1 FOREVER YOUNG (Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi, 6-1)
Japan-based colt could be the best 3-year-old to have run in America this year. Lost the Kentucky Derby by two noses after being mugged through the stretch by Sierra Leone. That’s his only loss in seven starts, with two wins at 1¼ miles. Yahagi, the only Japanese trainer to win a Breeders’ Cup race, took two in 2021 at Del Mar. He’s a bargain if you get 6-1, which is unlikely.
Betting verdict: Win contender
2 HIGHLAND FALLS (Luis Saez, Brad Cox, 20-1)
Son and grandson of Classic heroes Curlin and Awesome Again enters off a Grade 1 victory in second-rate Jockey Club Gold Cup. This is a massive class jump.
3 CITY OF TROY (Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien, 5-2)
O’Brien, one of the top trainers in history, has called the son of 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify his best horse ever. The Irish genius is 0-for-17 in the Classic, among the few marquee events he hasn’t won multiple times, and he thinks this is his best chance.
Making your dirt debut in the Classic is a monumental reach, but City of Troy may be good enough to pull it off. Moore and O’Brien are kings of the world, so a win would be no shock.
Betting verdict: Win contender
4 MIXTO (Kyle Frey, Doug O’Neill, 30-1)
Was 1-for-13 lifetime before 22-1 shocker over course and distance in very weak Pacific Classic, Grade 1 in name only. No chance.
Betting verdict: Toss
5 SENOR BUSCADOR (Joel Rosario, Todd Fincher, 30-1)
Deep closer struggled twice in California after winning $20 million Saudi Cup and running third in Dubai World Cup. Pace dependent and 0-for-4 at 1¼ miles but could slip into the trifecta or superfecta if the fractions are hot.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
6 DERMA SOTOGAKE (Christophe Lemaire, Hidetaka Otonashi, 20-1)
He’s 0-for-3, beaten 27 lengths, since his second at 26-1 odds in last year’s Classic. This field is way better. Gets first-time blinkers after sluggish fifth in prep in Japan. Off form, seems up against it.
Betting verdict: Toss
7 USHBA TESORO (Yuga Kawa