Record-setting Fierceness may be the favorite to win the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) on Saturday, but the usracing.com team doesn’t see it quite that way.
Mike Repole and FIerceness. Coady Photo.
Five of our seven astute handicappers are picking against 5-2 Fierceness in the 150th Run for the Roses, going with the likes of 3-1 second choice Sierra Leone to 30-1 longshot Endlessly.
We asked each of our selectors for their top 3 Derby finishers and awarded five points for first, three for place, and one for show. The results?
The selected winners are Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Just a Touch (10-1), Honor Marie (20-1), Dornoch (20-1), and Endlessly (30-1).
Meet the Top Kentucky Derby Contenders: Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and Just a Touch
The leading point-getter is Fierceness with 16 – two for a win, two for place. Next is Sierra Leone with 13 – one for a win, two for place, and two for show. Third is Just a Touch with 7 points – one for a win, two for show.
As for Fierceness, trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher with three-time Kentucky Derby winner John Velazquez aboard:
“He dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November and the Florida Derby in March. The ML odds favorite will run his way to victory,’’ commented handicapper Mad Max on his choice of Fierceness, who won the Florida Derby by a record 13 ½ lengths.
“Flying under the radar and looking great in the mornings. First time dirt is a question, but he has good numbers and a pedigree to suggest he’ll be fine with the distance,’’ says HorseCents, another of our handicappers. “Likes to run late but has some tactical ability and will be a very long price. In the Kentucky Derby, stranger things have happened.”
Honor Marie. Coady Photo.
As for the pick of Honor Marie at 20-1, Mr. Tout says: “Honor Marie has two wins at Churchill Downs and is training impressively. Closer makes it six straight longshot Kentucky Derby winners.”
The Professor is going with Dornoch, the Fountain of Youth winner who ran fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes.
“Inside post a bonus for this front-runner likely to make it to the front easily, then hold ‘em off in the stretch,’’ touts The Professor.
Sierra Leone gets the nod from Trackenstein, who says: “Strong closer will stay out of trouble early and close late to give Chad Brown his first Derby winner.”
The Derby picks from our handicappers:
CaptainMorgan: 1 Just a Touch 2 Fierceness 3 Sierra Leone
Trackenstein: 1 Sierra Leone 2 West Saratoga 3 Honor Marie
Mad Max: 1 Fierceness 2 Catching Freedom 3 Just a Touch
Mr. Tout: 1 Honor Marie 2 Fierceness 3 Sierra Leone
The Professor: 1 Dornoch 2 Just Steel 3 Just a Touch
HorseCents: 1 Endlessly 2 Sierra Leone 3 Forever Young
Racingfor$: 1 Fierceness 2 Sierra Leone 3 Catching Freedom
For those betting the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) on Friday, our selections:
CaptainMorgan: 1 Just FYI 2 Leslie’s Rose 3 Gin Gin
Trackenstein: 1 Just FYI 2 Tarifa 3 Fiona’s Magic
Mad Max: 1 Tarifa 2 Ways and Means 3 Just F Y I
Mr. Tout: 1 Just F Y I 2 Thorpedo Anna 3 Ways and Means
The Professor: 1 Just F Y I 2 Leslie’s Rose 3 Tarifa
HorseCents: 1 Where’s My Ring 2 Just F Y I 3 Ways and Means
Racingfor$: 1 Leslie’s Rose 2 Tarifa 3 Just FYI