In the runup to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4, usracing.com continues with our weekly Derby Top 10 contenders.
Derby Top 10: Fierceness Soars to No. 1; Timberlake Off Derby Trail
Todd Pletcher
“He’s super,” thanks for asking.
Those were the words of two-time Kentucky Derby (G1) winning trainer Todd Pletcher the morning after Fierceness delivered a record-smashing win in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday (March 30).
The 13 ½-length victory over eight rivals catapults Fierceness to No. 1 in our latest usracing.com Derby Top 10. An early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite will likely be the morning-line favorite in the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on May 4.
The command performance gave Pletcher a record-extending eighth win in the Florida Derby, a race that has produced more Kentucky Derby winners (25) than any other prep race.
“All the wins are special in their own right,’’ Pletcher said of his Florida Derby wins. “Some were really close, and [Saturday] was clearly not. They’re all rewarding, but [Saturday’s] was the most visually impressive.’’
Fierceness, with all three of his victories coming by huge margins (debut race, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Florida Derby), also has two disappointing losses (Champagne, Holy Bull). The feeling is he’s back in top form, and Pletcher will hopefully have him fit on the first Saturday in May.
Sierra Leone, No. 1 the past few weeks after his strong showing in the Risen Star (G2), drops to No. 2, followed by Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom, Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Dornoch, and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Domestic Product.
Timberlake, fourth as the favorite in the Arkansas Derby, is no longer on the road to the Derby, trainer Chad Brown told drf.com on Tuesday.
Saturday’s preps: Wood, Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby
Three major preps are Saturday offering Derby qualifying points of 100-50-25-15-10 to the top five finishers:
— In the $1 million Blue Grass Stakes (G1), Sierra Leone and Dornoch hook up against a handful of 3-year-olds needing a top 4 finish to hopefully gain enough points to qualify for the 20-horse Derby.
— In the $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2), No. 7 Deterministic is likely to run to follow up his Gotham (G3) win. A slew of others, including Withers winner Uncle Heavy and El Grande O, all need points to have a Derby chance.
— In the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1), Stronghold, with 25 Derby points, could be the only California-based horse to make the Derby field if he can finish in the top 3. Maymun and Imagination, the likely favorites, are ineligible for the Derby due to trainer Bob Baffert’s continuing suspension by Churchill Downs, Inc. following the DQ of 2021 Kentucky Derby first-place finisher Medina Spirit for a race day medication overage.
More Fierceness
Fierceness, though, will be a tough act to follow.
“It seems like the more times you watch it the more impressive it looks,” Pletcher said.
Who’s out of Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10
In addition to Timberlake, Honor Marie and Mystik Dan drop out, while Just Steel, second in the Arkansas Derby, moves back in at No. 8, with Just a Touch at No. 9.
1. Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez)
What a win! 13 ½ lengths. In a class of his own in gate-to-wire Florida Derby romp to move to the head of the class.
Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 4.
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 7-2 (pool 6 opening).
2. Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione)
Ready for one more prep in the Blue Grass after five 4-furlong works since Risen Star, most recently 49.60 at Payson Park on March 30. Drops a notch only because Fierceness now owns top prep performance.
Next start: Blue Grass, Keeneland, Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Leaderboard Position: No. 12 on Derby points leaderboard (55).
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 6-1.
3. Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat)
Last-to-first Louisiana Derby puts him among top contenders. Most recent posted work was March 15 – 5 furlongs in 1:01 at the Fair Grounds.
Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 4.
Kentucky Derby Leaderboard Position: No. 2 on Derby points leaderboard (125)
4. Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez)
Can Fountain of Youth winner top Sierra Leone at Keeneland? Tough race, but the colt already has a Derby berth clinched,more of a tune-up for full brother of ‘23 Derby winner Mage.Looking for his fourth straight win after two runner-up finishes.
Next start: Blue Grass, Keeneland, Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 10 on the Derby points leaderboard (60)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 12-1.
5. Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione)
Worked a solid 4 furlongs in 48.40 at Payson Park on March 30, the fastest of 47 at the distance. Looks like Tampa Bay Derby winner will be a second Derby runner for trainer, Chad Brown.
Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 11 on Derby points leaderboard (60)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 40-1.
6. Deterministic (Christophe Clement, Joel Rosario)
Worked 5 furlongs in 1:03.00 at Payson Park on March 21, first work since Gotham win on March 2, 2-for-2; a debut win on Aug. 12 at Saratoga followed by Gotham triumph nearly seven months later.
Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 15-1.
7. Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai)
Easy UAE Derby winner (100 qualifying points), may just be Japan’s first Derby winner. Not many unbeatens run in the Derby, but this guy is 5-for-5.
Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 4.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 3 on Derby points leaderboard (100)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 10-1
8. Just Steel (D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen)
Back in the Derby picture after runner-up finish to Muth in Arkansas Derby, D. Wayne Lukas could have second Derby starter in Seize the Grey (running Blue Grass). Four-time Derby winner Lukas will be fan favorite. Colt has three seconds in the last four starts; is that good? We’ll see…
Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 4.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 8 on Derby points leaderboard (65)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 25-1.
9. Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat)
A new addition, son of Triple Crown winner Justify needs a top 3 finish in the Blue Grass to make the Derby field . Gotham runner-up to Deterministic … Making just his third start; won in his debut at the Fair Grounds in January. Worked 5 furlongs in 59. 20 at Keeneland on March 31.
Next start: Blue Grass, Keeneland, Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 30-1.
10. West Saratoga (Larry Demeritte, Jesus Castanon)
This is our longshot Kentucky Derby contenders, won the Iroquois Stakes, runner-up in Jeff Ruby Steaks (all-weather).Commendable 10-2-5-1 record. Love the $11,000 purchase price by Harry Veruchi at Keeneland yearling sale.
Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 4.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (67)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 60-1.
On the bubble: Honor Marie, Track Phantom, Tuscan Sky
Note: With trainer Bob Baffert still banned by Churchill Downs Inc., none of his 3-year-olds can earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points, thus none are in our Derby Top 10. They include Imagination, Maymun, and Muth.