Brad Cox goes for an Arkansas Derby (G1) record-setting hat-trick Saturday when he saddles Timberlake in the crowning event of the Oaklawn Park season.
No trainer has won the Arkansas Derby for three consecutive years. In Timberlake, Cox has a quality runner who can extend the trainer’s streak that started with Cyberknife in 2022 and continued with Angel of Empire last year.
Timberlake
Timberlake is the 9-5 second choice, trailing only Muth who is favored at 8-5 on the morning line. The 1 1-8 miles race drew a field of 10.
The Arkansas Derby is one of the few remaining major preps for the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4. The Timberlake versus Muth rematch makes it one of the more compelling contests in the runup to the first Saturday in May.
The winner of the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby, offering a record purse after a $250,000 boost over last year’s edition, also rewards the winner 100 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. Points are a minor consideration for Cox as Timberlake has already accumulated 66, more than enough to make the race.
Timing, not points, has Timberlake running
The decision to have Timberlake make a second trip up from his winter base in New Orleans was based on timing rather than points.
His lone effort this year was a two-length victory in the Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes (G2) on Feb. 24. The colt needed one more race before the Derby, and decision came down to this spot or the Blue Grass (G1) on April 6 at Keeneland.
“I like the timing,” Cox said. “Obviously, he has the experience there now, that one run under him. Kind of thought the Rebel was the spot when we were getting started. It worked out.
“But obviously we’ve got to go into the Derby the right way. He’s shown the ability to ship up to Oaklawn and run well. Oaklawn has been a great place for having horses show up [in the Kentucky Derby] and run well. I think it’s a great path.”
Timberlake a top Kentucky Derby Contender
Timberlake figures prominently in discussions of Derby contenders. He is already a Grade 1 winner, having captured the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct last October. From there, he moved on to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he ran fourth, eight lengths behind Fierceness. It is notable that he was only 1 3/4 lengths behind Muth, the runner-up in the Juvenile.
Zedan Racing’s Muth and jockey Juan Hernandez
That was Timberlake’s last race until the Rebel.
Baffert-trained Muth ineligible to earn Kentucky Derby points
As for Muth, this spot is all about money, not Derby points. His trainer Bob Baffert remains banned from Churchill Downs in the aftermath of Medina Spirit’s disqualification from the 2021 Derby after flunking a post-race drug test.
This is not the ultimate goal for Muth who has not run since winning the San Vicente (G2) in early January at Santa Anita. Baffert is aiming for the Preakness (G1) on May 18 at Pimlico. Winning the middle jewel of the Triple Crown would be Baffert’s way of thumbing his nose at Churchill Downs.
Baffert is a four-time winner of the Arkansas Derby.
Other notable runners in the field include Liberal Arts, winner of the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs in late October and Mystik Dan who captured Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes (G3) in the mud.
The picks: 1 Timberlake 2 Mystik Dan 3 Muth
The field for the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Will Take It (Francisco Arrieta, Eddie Milligan, Jr.), 50-1
2 Timberlake (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 9-5
3 Dimatic (Cristian Torres, Steve Asmussen), 20-1
4 Time for Truth (Rafael Bejarano, Ron Moquett), 20-1
5 Liberal Arts (Tyler Gaffalione, Robert Medina), 15-1
6 Informed Patriot (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Steve Asmussen), 30-1
7 Muth (Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert), 8-5
8 Just Steel (Keith Asmussen, D. Wayne Lukas), 15-1
9 Mystik Dan (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Ken McPeek), 5-2
10 Imperial Gun (Emmanuel Esquivel, Steve Asmussen), 30-1