By US Racing Team
Mike Battaglia has been Churchill Downs’ morning line odds maker for 48 years since 1974 and the 2023 Kentucky Derby will mark his 50th year assigning morning line odds to the Kentucky Derby field. Morning line odds, which are odds given to horses in a race prior to the start of betting as a prediction how the linemaker thinks the public will bet and are assigned at the post position draw.
Battaglia has correctly predicted the Derby favorite at a better than 77 percent clip and is 38-for-49. This year, champion Forte is the 3-1 morning line favorite. Several rivals are listed at 50-1.
Morning line odds were first published in the official Kentucky Derby Day program in 1949, though records prior to 1949 are incomplete.
Battaglia’s winning morning line favorites, since his first year in 1974:
Tiz The Law 3-5 .70-1
Justify, 2018: 3-1 2.90-1
Nyquist, 2016 3-1 2.30-1
American Pharoah, 2015 5-2 2.90-1
California Chrome, 2014 5-2 2.50-1
Orb, 2013 7-2 5.40-1
Big Brown, 2008 3-1 2.40-1
Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000 9-5 2.30-1
Spectacular Bid, 1979 3-5 0.60-1
Seattle Slew, 1977 1-2 0.50-1
Foolish Pleasure, 1975 9-5 1.90-1
Cannonade/Judger,1974 8-5 1.50-1
Pre-Battaglia morning line favorites to have won, 1949-1973
Secretariat/Angle Light, 1973 1-1 1.50-1
Riva Ridge, 1972 9-5 1.50-1
Majestic Prince, 1969 7-5 1.40-1
Carry Back, 1961 5-2 2.50-1
Tim Tam, 1958 8-5 2.10-1
Needles, 1956 2-1 1.60-1
Hill Gail/Top Blend, 1952 6-5 1.10-1
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hit Show | Franco | Brad H. Cox | West, Gary and Mary | 30-1 |
| 2 | Verifying | Gaffalione | Brad H. Cox | Poulin, Jonathan, Westerberg, Magnier, Mrs. John, Smith, Derrick and Tabor, Michael B. | 15-1 |
| 3 | Two Phil’s | Loveberry | Larry Rivelli | Patricia’s Hope LLC and Sagan, Phillip | 12-1 |
| 4 | Conficence Game | Graham | J. Keith Desormeaux | Don’t Tell My Wife Stables | 20-1 |
| 5 | Tapit Trice | Saez | Todd A. Pletcher | Whisper Hill Farm, LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck) | 5-1 |
| 6 | Kingbarns | J. Ortiz | Todd A. Pletcher | Spendthrift Farm LLC | 12-1 |
| 7 | Reincarnate | Velazquez | Tim Yakteen | SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Masterson, Robert E., Stonestreet Stables LLC, Schoenfarber, Jay A., Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine | 50-1 |
| 8 | Mage | Castellano | Gustavo Delgado | OGMA Investments, LLC, Restrepo, Ramiro, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH | 15-1 |
| SCR | Skinner | Hernandez | John A. Shirreffs | C R K Stable | 20-1 |
| SCR | Practical Move | Vazquez | Tim Yakteen | Amestoy, Jr., Pierre Jean, Amestoy, Leslie A. and Beasley, Roger K. | SCR |
| 9 | Disarm | Rosario | Steven M. Asmussen | Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC | 30/1 |
| 10 | Jace’s Road | Geroux | Brad H. Cox | West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables LLC | 15-1 |
| 11 | Sun Thunder | Hernandez Jr | Kenneth G. McPeek | R.T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine | 30-1 |
| 12 | Angel Of Empire | Prat | Brad H. Cox | Albaugh Family Stables LLC | 8-1 |
| SCR | Forte | I. Ortiz JR. | Todd A. Pletcher | Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable | 3-1 |
| 13 | Raise Can | Corrales | Ben Colebrook | Warren, Andrew and Warren, Rania | 15-1 |
| 14 | Derma Sotogake | Lemaire | Hidetaka Otonashi | Hiroyuki Asanuma | 10-1 |
| 15 | Rocket Can | Alvarado | William I. Mott | Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc. | 15-1 |
| SCR | Lord Miles | Lopez | Todd A. Pletcher | Vegso Racing Stable | 30-1 |
| SCR | Continuar | Sakai | Yoshito Yahagi | Lion Race Horse Co. Ltd. | 50-1 |
| 16 | Cyclone Mischief | J. Rosario | D. Romans | Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Castleton Lyons. | 30-1 |
| 17 | Mandarin Hero | Kazushi Kimura | Terunobu Fujita | Hiroaki Arai. | 20-1 |
| 18 | King Russell | Rafael Bejarano | Ron Moquett | Jones, Brereton C. and Naber Racing, LLC | 50-1 |